Watch out, Glenn Close! Oscar-snubbed Toni Collette could get revenge at the Independent Spirit Awards

It looks like Glenn Close is well on her way to finally winning her first Oscar on her seventh nomination for “The Wife.” And when an Oscar front-runner is in the running at the Independent Spirit Awards they tend to win that too — six of the last eight Spirit winners for Best Actress matched the Oscars’ pick — but is there reason to believe that Close is vulnerable at the independent film kudos? Our users think she could be upset by Toni Collette (“Hereditary”).

One of the biggest reasons Close is such an Oscars front-runner is the fact that she has been nominated seven times but still hasn’t won. Similar sentiment swept perennial nominees like Kate Winslet (“The Reader”) and Julianne Moore (“Still Alice”) to overdue Best Actress victories in recent years. But there is no such urgency at the Spirit Awards, where Close is nominated for the first time. And Close is the only nomination for “The Wife” at these awards, which indicates limited enthusiasm for the film beyond her performance in it.

Meanwhile, “Hereditary” was completely snubbed by the Oscars despite critical acclaim. So members of Film Independent may want to avenge her at the Spirit Awards, especially if they think Close will win the Oscar the very next night anyway. And all it takes to be a voting member of Film Independent is to pay yearly dues of $95, so any passionate movie fan can join. That means Collette could have another advantage since “Hereditary” ($44 million domestic box office gross) was more widely seen than “The Wife” ($9 million domestic gross).

As of this writing Close gets leading odds of 10/3, according to the combined Spirit Awards predictions of Gold Derby users, but Collette is close behind with odds of 4/1. Among those betting on a Collette upset are two of the Expert journalists we’ve polled from top media outlets (Fox TV’s Tariq Khan and Weekend Warrior’s Edward Douglas). Collette is also backed by 5 of the Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s winners, and 5 of the All-Star Top 24 who got the highest prediction scores when you combine the last two years’ results.

And it wouldn’t be the first time Collette bested Close. She also beat the Oscar front-runner for Best Actress at the Gotham Awards for independent film last fall. Could she do it again?

Be sure to make your Indie Spirit predictions so that Hollywood studio executives and top name stars can see how their films are faring in our odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on February 23. And join in the fierce debate over the 2019 Spirit Awards taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our film forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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