Tom O’Neil’s 100% accurate Golden Globe predictions: Don’t argue with me!

When making Golden Globe predictions, everybody agrees that “A Star Is Born” will do well, but how well? Yes, it will probably bag Best Drama Picture, Actress (Lady Gaga) and Song, but will Bradley Cooper get his due gold, too? If yes, which category: Best Director or Best Actor? Both?

See my predictions side by side with the rankings of two dozen other Experts here. Can you beat us? Make (or update) your predictions now!

BEST DRAMA PICTURE
“Black Panther”
“BlacKkKlansman”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“If Beale Street Could Talk”
* “A Star Is Born”

According to Gold Derby’s odds, “A Star Is Born” is so far out front to win that it’s received more than 10 times as many predictions as number-two-ranked “BlacKkKlansman.” Among our 24 Experts, the predictions are unanimous, including me, but beware: Voters have been opting for very edgy films in this category in recent years (“Moonlight,” “Three Billboards”), so “BlacKkKlansman” has a shot, especially if Spike Lee wins Best Director. If there’s an upset here, though, the spoiler will probably be “Bohemian” because HFPA members really love it.

BEST DRAMA ACTRESS
Glenn Close (“The Wife”)
* Lady Gaga (“A Star Is Born”)
Nicole Kidman (“Destroyer”)
Melissa McCarthy (“Can You Ever Forgive Me?”)
Rosamund Pike (“A Private War”)

Lady Gaga is the perfect Globes queen, of course, and now is the perfect time in her career, as she crosses over successfully to acting, to crown her in Hollywood. A superstar is reborn.

BEST DRAMA ACTOR
Bradley Cooper (“A Star Is Born”)
Willem Dafoe (“At Eternity’s Gate”)
Lucas Hedges (“Boy Erased”)
* Rami Malek (“Bohemian Rhapsody”)
John David Washington (“BlacKkKlansman”)

Most Gold Derby Users pick Cooper, but he may split his votes because he’s also nominated for directing. Malek has a giant lead here among our Experts (16 compared to 8 for Cooper). That’s probably because we keep hearing how much Globe voters adore “Rhapsody,” so it’s logical to think it will win at least one award. If so, it’s this one. One more point to remember: Malek holds a Globes I.O.U. He didn’t win Best TV Drama Actor a few years ago when “Mr. Robot” won Best Drama Series and Supporting Actor (Christian Slater).

BEST MUSICAL/COMEDY PICTURE
“Crazy Rich Asians”
“The Favourite”
* “Green Book”
“Mary Poppins Returns”
“Vice”

It’s a toss-up: “Green Book” vs. “The Favourite.” “Green Book” had the most voter support several weeks ago when noms came out, but “Favourite” surged in the final stretch. I’m a wimp. And very confused. I’ll stick with “Green Book.”

BEST COMEDY/MUSICAL ACTRESS
Emily Blunt (“Mary Poppins Returns”)
* Olivia Colman (“The Favourite”)
Elsie Fisher (“Eighth Grade”)
Charlize Theron (“Tully”)
Constance Wu (“Crazy Rich Asians”)

Not so long ago, knock-your-block-off musical turns tended to succeed here (Nicole Kidman for “Moulin Rouge,” even Madonna for “Evita”), but they don’t automatically dominate anymore. Surprisingly, Emily Blunt lost this category a few years ago for “Into the Woods” and now 9 Experts pick her to triumph for “Poppins.” Maybe she will, but I’m one of the 14 Experts who pick Olivia Colman because she’s The Hot Thing Right Now and she has a very good chance to snag the Oscar.

BEST COMEDY/ MUSICAL ACTOR
Christian Bale (“Vice”)
Lin-Manuel Miranda (“Mary Poppins Returns”)
* Viggo Mortensen (“Green Book”)
Robert Redford (“The Old Man & the Gun”)
John C. Reilly (“Stan & Ollie”)

Bale is the heavy fave, but I think he’ll be hurt by the Creep Factor (his portrayal of the eerie Dick Cheney is too good). Viggo also gained all that weight for his role, becoming a big, chubby, adorable lug who invites a hug.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams (“Vice”)
Claire Foy (“First Man”)
Regina King (“If Beale Street Could Talk”)
Emma Stone (“The Favourite”)
* Rachel Weisz (“The Favourite”)

Amy Adams is such a Globes darling that her role in “Big Eyes” is what beat Emily Blunt in “Into the Woods”! But Adams is already expected to take a different Globe this year: Best Actress in a TV Movie/Mini for “Sharp Objects.” Will they give her two in one night? Most pundits believe this film category is between her and Regina King. King is heavily favored and needs to prevail here in order to keep her Oscar hopes alive. She’s not nominated at the SAG Awards where Adams is presumed to be ahead. I’m going out on a big limb here for Weisz because I think she has much more support than most awardwatchers realize and, in a tight three-way race, it’s enough to emerge as champ.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
* Mahershala Ali (“Green Book”)
Timothee Chalamet (“Beautiful Boy”)
Adam Driver (“BlacKkKlansman”)
Richard E. Grant (“Can You Ever Forgive Me?”)
Sam Rockwell (“Vice”)

Everybody but Rockwell has a chance to win. (His performance is too short.) I’m picking Ali because he’s still hyper-cool and he’s got a lead role with artsy cachet and deep emotional currents.

BEST ANIMATED PICTURE
“Incredibles 2”
“Isle of Dogs”
“Mirai”
“Ralph Breaks the Internet”
* “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”

This race is a three-way squeaker: “Incredibles,” “Dogs” or “Spider-Man.” Disney and/or Pixar has won this category 10 times in 13 years (read more in Joyce Eng’s interesting article), so that suggests “Incredibles” will be next, but right now Hollywood is all abuzz about “Spidey.”

BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
“Capernaum”
“Girl”
“Never Look Away”
* “Roma”
“Shoplifters”

“Roma” can’t lose, of course.

BEST DIRECTOR
Bradley Cooper (“A Star Is Born”)
Alfonso Cuaron (“Roma”)
Peter Farrelly (“Green Book”)
* Spike Lee (“BlacKkKlansman”)
Adam McKay (“Vice”)

Nearly everybody assumes Cuaron will snatch these laurels easily because of the universal gushing over “Roma,” but he just won five years ago for “Gravity” and “Roma” will certainly be honored on Sunday with the Globe as Best Foreign Film. Will that be enough? Cooper has good reason to be optimistic about this category. HFPA members are smitten with handsome actors-turned-directors. Ben Affleck (“Argo”) received the Best Director Globe even though he got snubbed at the Oscars the year that “Argo” won Best Picture at both kudofests. But Cooper is also nominated for Best Drama Actor this year for “Star Is Born”: his support may split. I’m told by many people that my prediction for Spike Lee is insane, but I’m sticking with it. They were wrong about “BlacKkKlansman,” which over-performed hugely when Globe, SAG and Critics’ Choice nominations came out. This derby season may very well turn out to be the Year of Spike Lee. If that happens, we may see him break loose first at the Globes.

BEST SCREENPLAY
* “The Favourite”
“Green Book”
“If Beale Street Could Talk”
“Roma”
“Vice”

“Favourite” sparkles because of its wordsplay.

BEST MUSIC SCORE
* “Mary Poppins Returns”
“Black Panther”
“First Man”
“Isle of Dogs”
“A Quiet Place”

Being a musical, “Poppins” has the edge, but “First Man” has massive support.

BEST SONG
* “Shallow” (“Star Is Born”)
“All the Stars” (“Blank Panther”)
“Revelation” (“Boy Erased”)
“Girl in the Movies” (“Dumplin'”)
“Requiem for a Private War” (“A Private War”)

“Shallow” is the one, guaranteed shoo-in of the night, you betcha.

More News from GoldDerby

Loading