Golden Globe Best Actor showdown: Will Joaquin Phoenix (‘Joker’) or Adam Driver (‘Marriage Story’) prevail?

Who will win Best Film Drama Actor when the Golden Globes are handed out on Sunday? This awards derby seems to have narrowed down to Joaquin Phoenix (“Joker”) and Adam Driver (“Marriage Story”). Based on the combined predictions of thousands of Gold Derby users, a clear consensus has emerged, but it’s not a done deal.

Phoenix has leading odds of 82/25 with overwhelming support from the Expert journalists we’ve surveyed from top media outlets: 12 out of 15 of them say he’s the man to beat as of this writing. He’s backed by Erik Davis (Fandango), Edward Douglas (The Beast), Joyce Eng (Gold Derby), Tariq Khan (Fox TV), Scott Mantz (Collider), Wilson Morales (BlackFilm), Michael Musto (NeewNowNext), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Christopher Rosen (Decider), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Brian Truitt (USA Today) and Susan Wloszczyna (Gold Derby).

Phoenix has been a top awards contender all season, but the Globes went a step further by nominating Todd Phillips for directing “Joker,” a big surprise on nominations morning that might mean enough support for Phoenix to make this a runaway.

And the Globes have been big fans of Phoenix in the past. Not only did he win for his performance in “Walk the Line” (2005) and earn nominations for his other Oscar-nominated turns in “Gladiator” (2000) and “The Master” (2012), the Globes also cited him for “Her” (2013) and “Inherent Vice” (2014). That’s love.

Meanwhile, only two Experts are currently predicting Driver: Eric Deggans (NPR) and Jack Mathews (Gold Derby). But don’t count him out. “Marriage Story” is the most nominated film of the year with six bids and the benefit of much better reviews than “Joker,” though mixed reviews didn’t hurt “Bohemian Rhapsody” last year.

Driver earned his first Globe nomination last year for “BlacKkKlansman,” and he has certainly been on hot streak since then, earning a Tony nom for “Burn This” on Broadway and appearing in the films “The Report,” “The Dead Don’t Die” and “Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker” in addition to “Marriage Story” in 2019. The Globes way wish to honor him for his big year, though it’s hard to get bigger than Phoenix’s deranged transformation in “Joker.” Which way do you think the Globes will go?

Be sure to make your Golden Globe predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions until winners are announced. And join in the fierce debate over the 2020 Golden Globes taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our movie forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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