Grammy predictions for Record of the Year: October odds favor Billie Eilish, Lil Nas X, Jonas Brothers, Taylor Swift …

The Grammy nominations are still a month away; they’ll be announced on November 20. But more than 2,000 Gold Derby users are predicting who will make the cut in the top four general field categories. So what do our current Record of the Year odds say as of mid-October?

As of this writing Billie Eilish is the front-runner to win for “Bad Guy,” She gets leading odds of 15/2, followed by “Old Town Road” by Lil Nas X featuring Billy Ray Cyrus (17/2 odds), “Truth Hurts” by Lizzo (21/2 odds), “Sunflower” by Post Malone and Swae Lee (15/1 odds), “Talk” by Khalid (20/1 odds), “Sucker” by the Jonas Brothers (20/1 odds), “You Need to Calm Down” by Taylor Swift (22/1 odds) and “Senorita” by Shawn Mendes and Camila Cabello (28/1 odds).

Of those eight predicted nominees, six of them reached number-one on the Billboard Hot 100 singles chart. And the only two that missed the top spot (“Talk” and “Calm Down”) still peaked in the top-five. Indeed, Grammy voters tend to gravitate to the biggest hits, but you’ve got to watch out for underdogs since the final decisions in the top categories are decided by nomination review committees. Those committees can level the playing field and open the door for less ubiquitous songs to be recognized. Last year, for instance, seven of the eight nominees for Record of the Year were top-10 hits, but “The Joke” by Brandi Carlile never actually charted on the Hot 100.

That’s still a rarity. In the last five years only one other song has made the cut that wasn’t at least in Billboard’s top-40: “Really Love” by D’Angelo and the Vanguard (2016), which also never cracked the Hot 100. But we could see that happen more often since the Grammys now have eight available slots in the general field instead of just five. Carlile’s Grammy breakthrough came in the first year with eight nominees, and it might be indicative of the recording academy’s desire to diversify beyond the most obvious hits, especially since the academy has made efforts to diversify its membership and awards overall.

Who are you predicting for Record of the Year, Song of the Year, Album of the Year and Best New Artist? Who do you think we’re underestimating? Make or update your predictions here in our predictions center. Keep revising your forecasts as often as you like between now and the nominations announcement on November 20.

Be sure to make your Grammy predictions so that record executives and top name stars can see how their music is faring in our Grammy odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until nominations are announced. And join in the fierce debate over the 2020 Grammys taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our music forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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