Are we underestimating Lady Gaga at the VMAs? The MTV Video Music Awards darling could win again for ‘Shallow’

Lady Gaga won a bunch of MTV Video Music Awards for “Bad Romance,” so it stands to reason that she’ll win again for another bad romance, right? She’s nominated twice (Song of the Year and Best Collaboration) for “Shallow,” her duet with Bradley Cooper as doomed lovers in “A Star is Born” (watch it above). But “Shallow” isn’t the front-runner in either of its categories. Are we underestimating it?

Altogether Lady Gaga has won 13 Moonmen out of 28 nominations, which makes her one of the most awarded artists in the history of the VMAs. By far her biggest success came in 2010 when she received a record 13 nominations and won 8 of them, including Video of the Year for “Bad Romance.” That video alone won seven prizes, which makes it the second most awarded video of all time, behind Peter Gabriel‘s iconic “Sledgehammer,” which won nine times in 1987.

However, her nominations this year are her first since 2011, when she was up for four awards and took home Best Female Video and Best Video with a Message for “Born This Way.” Music fans can be fickle, so does her fan base have the same strength it did at the start of the decade? Well, judging from the MTV Movie and TV Awards, she sure does. She has won three times in the last two years at those fan-voted awards: Best Music Documentary for “Gaga: Five Foot Two” (2018), then Best Performance in a Movie and Best Musical Moment for “A Star is Born” (2019).

So she could end up winning both of MTV’s audience-voted kudos in the same year for the same movie. But our readers are skeptical. According to the combined predictions of hundreds of Gold Derby users, she and Cooper rank third for Song of the Year with 9/2 odds; the record-breaking hit “Old Town Road” by Lil Nas X and Billy Ray Cyrus is the front-runner there. And she ranks fifth for Best Collaboration with 6/1 odds, while BTS and Halsey lead the pack there for “Boy with Luv.”

But it has been quite a winning streak for Lady Gaga for “Shallow” thus far, so we’d be fools to count her out entirely. She has already won at the Critics’ Choice Awards, Golden Globes, BAFTAs, Oscars and Grammys for her music from “A Star is Born,” so perhaps that momentum will carry her further into the deep end.

Be sure to make your MTV Video Music Award predictions so that music executives and top name stars can see how they’re faring in our odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until winners are announced on August 26. And join in the fierce debate over the 2019 VMAs taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our music forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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