MTV Video Music Awards predictions 2019: Odds in 20 VMAs categories from Video of the Year to Visual Effects

The 2019 MTV Video Music Awards are right around the corner on Monday night, August 26. So who will win? Scroll down for our complete predictions in 20 categories, with the nominees ranked in order of their racetrack odds (projected winners are highlighted in gold).

Our odds are calculated by combining the predictions of hundreds of Gold Derby users who have given us their forecasts here in our predictions center. That includes the Gold Derby Editors who cover awards year-round, the Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s VMA winners, and the All-Star Top 24 who got the highest scores when you combined the last two years’ VMA results. But the best predictions usually come from our bloc of everyday Users, one of whom usually trounces the rest of us when it comes to picking the winners.

The VMA winners themselves are decided by music fans voting for their favorites online. The only exceptions are the six professional awards (Direction, Art Direction, Choreography, Cinematography, Editing and Visual Effects), whose recipients are chosen by MTV music insiders. And there are three VMA categories that aren’t in our predictions center: Best Group, Best Power Anthem and Song of Summer, whose nominations were announced on August 19 and whose winners are decided through MTV’s Instagram Stories.

Who has the advantage this year? Betting which way the wind will blow when it comes to a fan-voted award can be tricky (last year our odds were right a third of the time), so if you think you know better than our collective wisdom, there’s still time to make or update your predictions here in our predictions center before winners are announced.

VIDEO OF THE YEAR
“Thank U, Next,” Ariana Grande — 17/5
“Old Town Road,” Lil Nas X feat. Billy Ray Cyrus — 4/1
“You Need to Calm Down,” Taylor Swift — 5/1
“Bad Guy,” Billie Eilish — 11/2
“Sucker,” Jonas Brothers — 13/2
“A Lot,” 21 Savage feat. J. Cole

ARTIST OF THE YEAR
Ariana Grande — 10/3
Billie Eilish — 4/1
Shawn Mendes — 5/1
Jonas Brothers — 11/2
Cardi B — 13/2
Halsey — 15/2

SONG OF THE YEAR
“Old Town Road,” Lil Nas X feat. Billy Ray Cyrus — 10/3
“Thank U, Next,” Ariana Grande — 4/1
“Shallow,” Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper — 9/2
“You Need to Calm Down,” Taylor Swift – 11/2
“Sucker,” Jonas Brothers — 13/2
“In My Feelings,” Drake — 15/2

BEST COLLABORATION
“Boy with Luv,” BTS feat. Halsey — 18/5
“Me!,” Taylor Swift feat. Brandon Urie — 9/2
“Old Town Road,” Lil Nas X feat. Billy Ray Cyrus — 9/2
“Senorita,” Shawn Mendes and Camila Cabello — 11/2
“Shallow,” Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper — 6/1
“I Don’t Care,” Ed Sheeran and Justin Bieber — 15/2

BEST HIP-HOP VIDEO
“Old Town Road,” Lil Nas X feat. Billy Ray Cyrus — 16/5
“Sicko Mode,” Travis Scott feat. Drake — 4/1
“A Lot,” 21 Savage feat. J. Cole — 5/1
“Money,” Cardi B — 11/2
“Rule the World,” 2 Chainz feat. Ariana Grande — 13/2
“Higher,” DJ Khaled feat. Nipsey Hussle and John Legend — 15/2

BEST LATIN VIDEO
“Mala Mia,” Maluma — 71/20
“I Can’t Get Enough,” Benny Blanco, Tainy, Selena Gomez and J Balvin — 9/2
“Mia,” Bad Bunny feat. Drake — 9/2
“Con Calma,” Daddy Yankee feat. Snow — 11/2
“Con Altura,” Rosalia and J Balvin feat. El Guincho — 6/1
“Secreto,” Anuel AA and Karol G — 15/2

BEST POP VIDEO
“Thank U, Next,” Ariana Grande — 9/2
“You Need to Calm Down,” Taylor Swift — 11/2
“Bad Guy,” Billie Eilish — 6/1
“Sucker,” Jonas Brothers — 6/1
“Easier,” 5 Seconds of Summer — 13/2
“Talk,” Khalid — 7/1
“Please Me,” Cardi B and Bruno Mars — 7/1

BEST ROCK VIDEO
“High Hopes,” Panic! at the Disco — 16/5
“Natural,” Imagine Dragons — 4/1
“My Blood,” Twenty One Pilots — 5/1
“Love It If We Made It,” The 1975 — 11/2
“Bishops Knife Trick,” Fall Out Boy — 7/1
“Low,” Lenny Kravitz — 7/1

BEST DANCE VIDEO
“Happier,” Marshmello and Bastille — 17/5
“Taki Taki,” DJ Snake feat. Selena Gomez, Ozuna and Cardi B — 39/10
“Electricity,” Silk City and Dua Lipa — 5/1
“Solo,” Clean Bandit feat. Demi Lovato — 11/2
“Call You Mine,” The Chainsmokers feat. Bebe Rexha — 13/2
“Say My Name,” David Guetta, Bebe Rexha and J Balvin — 15/2

BEST R&B VIDEO
“Waves,” Normani feat. 6lack — 82/25
“Trip,” Ella Mai — 4/1
“Feels Like Summer,” Childish Gambino — 9/2
“Make it Better,” Anderson Paak feat. Smokey Robinson — 6/1
“Raise a Man,” Alicia Keys — 13/2
“Could’ve Been,” H.E.R. feat. Bryson Tiller — 7/1

BEST K-POP VIDEO
“Boy with Luv,” BTS feat. Halsey — 31/10
“Tempo,” EXO — 9/2
“Kill This Love,” Blackpink — 5/1
“Who Do You Love,” Monsta X feat. French Montana — 6/1
“Regular,” NCT 127 — 7/1
“Cat and Dog,” Tomorrow X Together — 15/2

VIDEO FOR GOOD
“You Need to Calm Down,” Taylor Swift — 16/5
“Earth,” Lil Dicky — 4/1
“Nightmare,” Halsey — 5/1
“Preach,” John Legend — 11/2
“Land of the Free,” The Killers — 13/2
“Runaway Train,” Jamie N Commons and Skylar Grey feat. Gallant — 15/2

BEST NEW ARTIST
Billie Eilish — 16/5
Lil Nas X — 4/1
Lizzo — 5/1
Ava Max — 6/1
H.E.R. — 13/2
Rosalia — 7/1

PUSH ARTIST OF THE YEAR
Billie Eilish — 82/25
Lizzo — 39/10
Bazzi — 5/1
H.E.R. — 11/2
Lauv — 7/1
CNCO — 7/1

BEST DIRECTION
“Bad Guy,” Billie Eilish — 10/3
“Thank U, Next,” Ariana Grande — 4/1
“You Need to Calm Down,” Taylor Swift — 5/1
“Old Town Road,” Lil Nas X feat. Billy Ray Cyrus — 11/2
“Cellophane,” FKA Twigs — 13/2
“No New Friends,” LDS — 15/2

BEST ART DIRECTION
“You Need to Calm Down,” Taylor Swift — 69/20
“7 Rings,” Ariana Grande — 4/1
“I Love It,” Kanye West and Lil Pump feat. Adele Givens — 5/1
“Boy with Luv,” BTS feat. Halsey — 11/2
“Senorita,” Shawn Mendes and Camila Cabello — 13/2
“Old Town Road,” Lil Nas X feat. Billy Ray Cyrus — 7/1

BEST CHOREOGRAPHY
“Boy with Luv,” BTS feat. Halsey — 82/25
“Con Altura,” Rosalia and J Balvin feat. El Guincho — 4/1
“Cellophane,” FKA Twigs — 5/1
“No New Friends,” LSD — 6/1
“Almeda,” Solange — 13/2
“Senorita,” Shawn Mendes and Camila Cabello — 7/1

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
“Tints,” Anderson Paak feat. Kendrick Lamar — 18/5
“Hostage,” Billie Eilish — 4/1
“Almeda,” Solange — 5/1
“Me!,” Taylor Swift feat. Brendon Urie — 11/2
“Thank U, Next,” Ariana Grande — 13/2
“Senorita,” Shawn Mendes and Camila Cabello — 13/2

BEST EDITING
“Bad Guy,” Billie Eilish — 10/3
“You Need to Calm Down,” Taylor Swift — 4/1
“Tints,” Anderson Paak feat. Kendrick Lamar — 5/1
“Almeda,” Solange — 11/2
“7 Rings,” Ariana Grande — 13/2
“Old Town Road,” Lil Nas X feat. Billy Ray Cyrus — 7/1

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
“God is a Woman,” Ariana Grande — 10/3
“Me!,” Taylor Swift feat. Brendon Urie — 4/1
“When The Party’s Over,” Billie Eilish — 5/1
“Cellophane,” FKA Twigs — 11/2
“No New Friends,” LSD — 13/2
“Just Us,” DJ Khaled feat. SZA

Be sure to make your MTV Video Music Award predictions so that music executives and top name stars can see how they’re faring in our odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until winners are announced on August 26. And join in the fierce debate over the 2019 VMAs taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our music forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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