Official 2020 SAG Awards predictions for film: Our nominations odds in top 5 categories

The paint is barely dry on the Golden Globe nominations, but it’s already time to consider the 2020 Screen Actors Guild Awards, which will announce their own nominees on Wednesday, December 11. So who will be nominated? Scroll down for our complete predictions in the top five film categories listed in order of their racetrack odds, with our projected winners highlighted in gold.

These awards are decided by the more than 160,000 members of the SAG-AFTRA guild representing a wide range of industry professionals including actors, announcers, broadcast journalists, dancers, program hosts, recording artists, singers, stunt performers, voice-over artists and more. But the nominees are chosen by a committee consisting of 2,500 randomly selected members that rotate out every year.

And in contrast to other awards like the Critics’ Choice Awards and the aforementioned Golden Globes, which are voted on by journalists who cover the industry, the SAG Awards are handed out by industry insiders, many of whom are also members of the motion picture academy that decides the Oscars. So the two organizations tend to agree on most nominees and winners.

Last year the SAG Awards and Oscars honoring the best achievements of 2018 had 15 out of 20 acting nominees in common, and three of their four winners were the same. Honoring 2017, the two groups also agreed on 15 nominees, and all four winners were the same. And honoring 2016, the groups agreed on 17 nominees and three of the four winners. So there’s a lot riding on this list of contenders. Judging from recent results, if you make the cut at this event there’s about a 75% chance you’ll be nominated for an Oscar.

Our racetrack odds have been calculated by combining the predictions of thousands of Gold Derby users who have made their forecasts here in our predictions center. Among those users are Expert journalists from top media outlets, the Editors who cover awards year-round for Gold Derby, the Top 24 Users who got the highest predictions scores betting on last year’s nominations and the All-Star Top 24 who got the highest scores when you combine prediction results from the last couple of years.

So do you agree with our consensus this year, or do you think you know better? Check out our predictions below.

CAST IN A MOTION PICTURE
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” — 19/5
Marriage Story” — 9/2
The Irishman” — 9/2
Little Women” — 17/2
“Jojo Rabbit” — 10/1

Dark Horse: “Knives Out” — 11/1

FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Renee Zellweger, “Judy” — 82/25
Scarlett Johansson, “Marriage Story” — 4/1
Awkwafina, “The Farewell” — 11/2
Charlize Theron, “Bombshell” — 11/2
Saoirse Ronan, “Little Women” — 7/1

Dark Horse: Lupita Nyong’o, “Us” — 21/2

MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Joaquin Phoenix, “Joker” — 7/2
Adam Driver, “Marriage Story” — 19/5
Leonardo DiCaprio, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” — 11/2
Robert De Niro, “The Irishman” — 6/1
Eddie Murphy, “Dolemite is My Name” — 7/1

Dark Horse: Antonio Banderas, “Pain and Glory” — 15/1

FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Laura Dern, “Marriage Story” — 71/20
Jennifer Lopez, “Hustlers” — 39/10
“Margot Robbie, “Bombshell” — 11/2
Maggie Smith, “Downton Abbey” — 8/1
Scarlett Johansson, “Jojo Rabbit” — 19/2

Dark Horse: Florence Pugh, “Little Women” — 16/1

MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Brad Pitt, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” — 7/2
Al Pacino, “The Irishman” — 4/1
Tom Hanks, “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood” — 9/2
Joe Pesci, “The Irishman” — 13/2
Anthony Hopkins, “The Two Popes” — 15/2

Dark Horse: Willem Dafoe, “The Lighthouse” — 22/1

Be sure to make your SAG predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. And join in the fierce debate over the 2019 SAG Awards taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our movie forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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