Olivia Colman could finally be the favorite at the SAG Awards thanks to ‘The Crown’

Olivia Colman earned her maiden Screen Actors Guild Award nomination earlier this year in Best Actress for her turn as Queen Anne in “The Favourite,” which she ended up losing to Glenn Close (“The Wife”). But she could now follow up her loss with the sweet smell of victory for playing a different British monarch, Queen Elizabeth II, on the third season of Netflix’s “The Crown.” She has already ascended to the top of our combined SAG Awards TV drama actress odds ahead of the Nov. 17 release.

As part of a cast overhaul to accurately depict the aging of the characters, Colman is taking over the role from Claire Foy, who played the queen in the first two seasons. For her performance, Foy not only prevailed at the Golden Globes (2017) and Emmys (2018), but also nabbed two consecutive SAG statuettes (2017-18), which bodes well for Colman’s chances this year. Plus, “The Crown” itself has garnered consistent support from SAG-AFTRA, having additionally netted a win for John Lithgow in 2017 and back-to-back nominations for drama ensemble. And with the likes of Helena Bonham Carter and Tobias Menzies joining the cast for Seasons 3 and 4 alongside Colman, it could even wind up with the top prize this time around, like our odds currently predict.

Even though Colman wasn’t crowned by SAG for “The Favourite,” she did go home with the Best Comedy Actress Critics’ Choice Award and Globe, as well as Best Actress at BAFTA and the Academy Awards, which has revved up her momentum leading up to “The Crown.” What also helps is that despite winning her 2019 awards for a movie, she is most known for her TV work: She’s been nominated twice at the Emmys — for “The Night Manager” in 2016 (Best Limited Series/TV Movie Supporting Actress) and “Fleabag” just this year (Best Comedy Supporting Actress) — plus has other notable credits, such as ITV’s “Rev.” (2010-14) and BBC’s “Broadchurch” (2013-17) under her belt. With the SAG-AFTRA voting body consisting of both film and TV actors, her wide-ranging body of work could prove to be an advantage.

SEE ‘The Crown’ Season 3 starts streaming on Nov. 17

Yes, the third season of “The Crown” is still largely unseen, but if Colman’s past work has told us anything, then that she’s a versatile actress, capable of headlining a show and taking on such a demanding role. The subtle, more reserved nature of Queen Elizabeth is a great change of pace from the temperamental Anne, a frail and fallible queen who is scarred by the deaths of her 17 children. And as evidenced by Foy’s back-to-back SAG wins (and Emmy win), actors are generally suckers for such big physical transformations, specifically into real-life figures. Hence, if voters want to make up for snubbing Colman last year, a win for “The Crown” might just be the way to do so.

The third season premieres three days after SAG ballots go live. But late premiere dates — Nov. 4, 2016 (Season 1) and Dec. 8, 2017 (Season 2) — haven’t hurt the show thus far, and it’s unlikely to change this year with the show having already established itself as a SAG favorite and Netflix being a SAG favorite in general. Voting doesn’t even close until Dec. 8 (just three days before the nominations are announced), which would give voters ample time to at least take a peek at the third season. And since the final voting period stretches from Dec. 17 to Jan. 17, Colman could also get an additional boost from a potential victory at the Globes, which take place on Jan. 5.

Currently trailing Colman in the SAG TV odds are Nicole Kidman (“Big Little Lies”), Jodie Comer (“Killing Eve”), Meryl Streep (“Big Little Lies”) and Sandra Oh (“Killing Eve”).

PREDICT the SAG Awards nominations; change them until December 11

Be sure to make your SAG Awards nominee predictions today so that Hollywood insiders can see how their TV shows and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions as often as you like until just before nominees are announced on December 11. And join in the fun debate over the 2020 SAG Awards taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our television forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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