If you ever find yourself in a split Best Actress Oscar race, then you want to win these two awards to secure that Oscar: the Golden Globe and the BAFTA. Since BAFTA became a precursor 18 years ago, those two prizes have been the key to Best Actress gold, and Olivia Colman (“The Favourite”) proved that again with her upset over Glenn Close (“The Wife”).
Colman is the fourth Best Actress Oscar champ to prevail with the Globe and BAFTA, following Nicole Kidman (“The Hours,” 2002), Marion Cotillard (“La Vie en Rose,” 2007) and Meryl Streep (“The Iron Lady,” 2011). All four women were in competitive races with their chief rivals: Close, Renee Zellweger (“Chicago”), Julie Christie (“Away From Her”) and Viola Davis (“The Help”), respectively.
Here’s how all four races shook out with the major precursors:
Golden Globe Drama: Kidman
Golden Globe Comedy/Musical: Zellweger
Critics’ Choice: Julianne Moore, “Far From Heaven”
Golden Globe Drama: Christie
Golden Globe Comedy/Musical: Cotillard
Critics’ Choice: Christie
Golden Globe Drama: Streep
Golden Globe Comedy/Musical: Michelle Williams, “My Week with Marilyn”
Critics’ Choice: Davis
Golden Globe Drama: Close
Golden Globe Comedy/Musical: Colman
Critics’ Choice: Close and Lady Gaga, “A Star Is Born” (tie)
Of note, Kidman, Cotillard, Streep and Colman all won for playing real-life European figures — three British (Virginia Woolf, Margaret Thatcher and Queen Anne), one French (Edith Piaf) — which no doubt gave them a leg up at BAFTA, setting them up perfectly for Oscar as voting typically opens after the BAFTAs.
All four women who lost the Oscar had at least the SAG. Three of them had the Globe in the other category, except for Davis, who lost the drama Globe to Streep. Three of them also won the Critics’ Choice, save for Zellweger, as that went to Moore, the probable third place finalist that year.
For as strong as the SAG is on its own as an Oscar soothsayer — 18 of SAG’s 25 Best Actress champs have gone on to win the Oscar — it is seemingly no match for the potent Globe and BAFTA combo, in this category at least. Interestingly, that pairing is not as powerful in other races.
Ten years ago, the Best Actor race was a nail-biter between Globe and BAFTA champ Mickey Rourke (“The Wrestler”) and Critics’ Choice and SAG winner Sean Penn (“Milk”), with the latter prevailing. Jennifer Lawrence (“American Hustle,” 2013) and Kate Winslet (“Steve Jobs,” 2015) failed to score the supporting actress Oscar with just the Globe and BAFTA. However, Lawrence, who lost to Lupita Nyong’o (“12 Years a Slave”), had just won Best Actress for “Silver Linings Playbook” the year before, and Winslet’s Globe and BAFTA victories weren’t against eventual Oscar champ Alicia Vikander (“The Danish Girl”), who was promoted to lead by both groups. Nyong’o and Vikander nabbed Critics’ Choice and SAG.
The non-Best Actress Oscar winner to triumph with just the Globe and BAFTA was Christoph Waltz (“Django Unchained,” 2012), who wasn’t nominated at Critics’ Choice or SAG.
So in hindsight, maybe we should’ve seen Colman’s win coming all along.