Not all original screenplays are all that ‘original.’ While the writers may not have adapted them from existing works, many ‘original screenplays’ are based on real events and real people rather than wholly made-up stories and characters. With that in mind, let’s take a look back at the Original Screenplay nominees of the last five Oscars and see what that means for this year’s hopeful nominees:
2018:
Winner: “Get Out” – Original
“The Big Sick” – Original
“Lady Bird” – Original
“The Shape of Water” – Original
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” – Original
2017:
Winner: “Manchester by the Sea” – Original
“Hell or High Water” – Original
“La La Land” – Original
“The Lobster” – Original
“20th Century Women” – Original
2016:
Winner: “Spotlight” – Real Events
“Bridge of Spies” – Real Events
“Ex Machina” – Original
“Inside Out” – Original
“Straight Outta Compton” – Real Events
2015:
Winner: “Birdman” – Original
“Boyhood” – Original
“Foxcatcher” – Real Events
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” – Original
“Nightcrawler” – Original
2014:
Winner: “Her” – Original
“American Hustle” – Real Events
“Blue Jasmine” – Original
“Dallas Buyers Club” – Real Events
“Nebraska” – Original
Of the 25 past Original Screenplay nominees, 19 of them have been wholly original scripts with made-up characters and plots; four of these won their respective races. Six of the nominated scripts were inspired by real events and people and one prevailed: “Spotlight” written by Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer, which was based on the Boston Globe’s uncovering of the massive scandal of child molestation and cover-up within the local Catholic Archdiocese.
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The academy clearly prefers their original scripts to be just that – entirely original rather than inspired by real events/people. But what does that mean in regards to this year’s hopefuls? Here are this year’s five Original Screenplay nominees and which category they fall under:
“The Favourite” – Tony McNamara and Deborah Davis – Real Events
“Roma” – Alfonso Cuaron – Original
“Green Book” – Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly – Real Events
“Vice” – Adam McKay – Real Events
“First Reformed” – Paul Schrader – Original
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Three out of the five nominees are scripts inspired by real events: “The Favourite,” written by Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, is a telling of the tale of Queen Anne and Lady Sarah. “Green Book” tells the story of Don Shirley and Frank “Tony Lip” Vallelonga, and was written by Vallelonga’s son Nick, Brian Hayes Currie, and director Peter Farrelly. And “Vice,” written by director Adam McKay, is a wild riff on politico Dick Cheney.
Just as recent Oscar history does not bode well for any of these three, it is a boost for Alfonso Cuaron’s “Roma,” which is entirely original although influenced by his upbringing and Paul Schrader’s “First Reformed.” So, it’s Cuaron and Schrader to beat, based on this nugget of Oscar voting patterns.
Be sure to check out how our experts rank this year’s Oscar contenders. Then take a look at the most up-to-date combined odds before you make your own Oscar predictions. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until winners are announced on February 24.
