“This was the year where, after several seasons of having all these new voters come in, we finally saw this massive shift in what the Academy is thinking about,” proclaims Gold Derby contributor Sam Eckmann in our fascinating post-Oscar nominations slugfest. “It was really the first year where we saw the impact that all the new influx of members are having. All these other types of films like a foreign, black and white, Netflix movie as a major front runner, Spike Lee finally getting in with three nods and a superhero movie finally competing in Best Picture.” Eckmann is joined by fellow contributors Charlie Bright, Amanda Spears, Tony Ruiz and Kevin Jacobsen. Watch the video of our discussion above.
When it came to which category threw us the most curve balls, Kevin is very emphatic on which one had the most surprises. “Film Editing! That is the one for me where I got two for five.” Tony wholeheartedly agrees but also mentions that the Directing category had its fair share of shockers. “I have to admit, Director through threw me for a loop,” citing Bradley Cooper’s absence for “A Star is Born” along with Pawel Pawlikowski getting in for “Cold War.” Charlie set them straight by declaring that he was most dumbfounded by what happened in Documentary Feature. “The thing I was not prepared for was the combo of both ‘Won’t You Be My Neighbor’ and ‘Three Identical Strangers’ missing out. That really caught me off-guard along with ‘Shirkers’ missing. I thought they would go for that.”
When it came to the marquee category of Best Picture, the entire group believes that there is no clear cut favorite but are also focusing on four movies in particular that they think can actually win. Amanda is of the thought that “BlacKkKlansman” could see a shift in its fortunes. “I think we’re about to see the momentum change to that film. People could rally around, ‘Let’s give Spike Lee an Oscar!’ This is the film where they can stamp a socially conscious vote but it still got a lot of people to the theaters. And let’s also applaud Spike’s accomplishment and the fact that he’s the first African-American writer to get nominated in both Original and Adapted Screenplay.” Behind that she has “Roma” and “The Favourite.” Tony and Kevin both have “Roma” out front followed by “BlacKkKlansman” and “Green Book” with Tony not able to shake off the similarities to between the latter film and the 1989 Best Picture champ, “Driving Miss Daisy.” Sam has Lee’s film out front followed by “Roma” and “Green Book.” Charlie has the same top two as Tony and Kevin but rounds out his third place slot with “The Favourite.”
Be sure to check out how our experts rank this year’s Oscar contenders. Then take a look at the most up-to-date combined odds before you make your own 2019 Oscar predictions. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on February 24.