That bold Oscar wag Pete Hammond (Deadline) doesn’t agree with 19 out of 21 Experts at Gold Derby who predict “Roma” will win the Oscar for Best Picture. “I’m picking ‘Green Book’ since it won the Producers’ Guild Award,” he declares in our webcam chat. Watch above or listen to the audio podcast version below.
“PGA has the same voting method as the Oscars,” he notes. “They both use the preferential ballot. ‘Green Book’ seems to be the kind of likeable movie that would be a strong number-two vote if it’s not your number one. ‘Roma’ is a strong number-one vote” or might be ranked low on a voter’s ballot due to resistance against Netflix by the traditional film-industry base, Pete adds.
I disagree and defend my own “Roma” prediction by reminding Pete that “we’ve seen a pattern of esoteric, art-house movies winning Best Picture recently, such as ‘Shape of Water,’ ‘Moonlight’ and ‘Birdman.'” “Roma” fits that pattern. “Green Book” does not.
Pete concedes that point and adds, “There are many other movies that have a path to winning Best Picture,” he notes, citing “A Star Is Born” and “The Favourite.”
“‘The Favourite’ will win big at BAFTA” on Sunday, he predicts, noting that it has another advantage. “It’s got Fox Searchlight behind it,” which has been “especially successful in the second Oscar phase after the nominations,” leading to Best Picture victories by “Shape of Water,” “12 Years a Slave” and “Birdman.”See Oscar predictions for Best Picture by 21 pundits. Check out our latest Oscars racetrack odds based upon combining all Experts’ picks. Disagree? Make your predictions here and compete against our Experts and Editors to prove that you are the smartest prognosticator on the planet!
Video produced by David Janove and Andrew Merrill