Battle over Oscar predictions: Experts pick ‘The Irishman,’ but gutsy All Stars go ‘Hollywood’

In this corner are Gold Derby’s lofty seasoned Experts, professionals who bravely put their reputations on the line by attempting to the fate of each year’s Academy Awards race. They include such notables as Anne Thompson (Indiewire), Pete Hammond (Deadline), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily) and the jockey in chief himself, Tom O’Neil.

Right now, 16 of 28 Experts are placing their bets on “The Irishman” to claim the Best Picture Oscar. But hold your horses, Derbyites. There is a rival gang of know-it-alls who often give the Experts a run for their money, namely the All Star Top 24. A total of 15  users on the site are currently placing their bets on “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” to take Best Picture.

The double-dozen crew that includes such scrappy bad-ass Gold-busters with handles like helmetz, Amblin123, Eden, madadude and methaddiction are among the kudos prophets who achieve the highest percentage of correct choices on a regular basis when it comes to forecasting the Oscars nominations over the years. The primarily male collective tends to boldly stray from the group-think that often propels this site’s combined odds chart.

So who’s right? This year, our Experts had a higher accuracy score (78.61%) than the All Stars (76.94% right), but the All Stars crushed the Experts when predicting nominees previously in 2018 and 2017. Consider that in early January two of the All Stars picked “Green Book” to win Best Picture and one picked Olivia Colman over Best Actress fave Glenn Close — the most difficult wins to predict given the conventional wisdom in the air — while nine Experts chose “Green Book” and two picked Colman.

With a little more than two months to go before nomination voting begins on January 2, this seems like a good time to pit both groups against one another when it comes to the Best Picture race in particular and note where their paths diverge or merge.

Below is an update on the Experts’ Oscar prediction odds as well as for All-Star Top 24 as of October 22. Make your predictions, which will be factored into Gold Derby’s combined, official racetrack odds. All predictions are updated automatically once per hour.

First up are the 28 Experts and their choices as of October 22 for the Best Picture category:


1. “The Irishman”- 7/1
2. “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” – 15/2
3. “Marriage Story” – 17/2
4. “Jojo Rabbit”- 11/1
5. “Parasite”- 13/1
6. “Little Women”- 15/1
7. “1917” – 16/1
8. “Joker” – 18/1
9. “Ford v Ferrari” – 20/1
10.”The Farewell” – 22/1

Changes from last week: “Joker” rose from No. 10 to eighth place while “The Farewell” pulled into the 10th slot. Also dropping: “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood,” slipping from No. 8 to 11th place.

This is how the All Star Top 24 picks in the same category are stacking up as of October 22:


1. “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” – 13/2
2. “Marriage Story”- 15/2
3. “The Irishman” – 8/1
4. “1917”- 9/1
5. “Jojo Rabbit” – 10/1
6. “Parasite” – 21/2
7. “Little Women” – 23/2
8. “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood” – 15/1
9. “Ford v Ferrari” – 16/1
10. “Joker” – 18/1

Changes since last week: Some odds have shifted a bit but rankings are the same.

Comparing the Experts’ picks to those made by the All Star Top 24, the most noteworthy split is between the top three choices. One reason that the Experts are embracing Martin Scorsese‘s rather reflective biographical crime drama”The Irishman” as the one to beat? Most have probably gotten the chance to go to a screening of the three-and-a-half hour opus. The All Star civilians, however, most likely are waiting for the Netflix release to have a qualifying run in theaters starting Nov. 1 or wait until it streams online starting Nov. 27. We will circle back to see if these whiz kids shuffle up their deck next month.

SEE All 24 Martin Scorsese movies, ranked worst to best, including “Taxi Driver’ and ‘Raging Bull’

In the meantime, the Top 24 is sticking with  Quentin Tarantino‘s “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” a showbiz fairy-tale set in the year 1969 with AM radio hits playing in the background and vintage cars zooming around while the murderous Manson family lurk about.

SEE Top 10 Robert De Niro films, ranked worst to best

As for  “1917” — the yet-to-be-seen World War I film directed by Sam Mendes of “American Beauty” fame that opens December 25 — the All Stars place it above the cheeky Nazi whimsy of Taika Waititi‘s  “Jojo Rabbit” and super-hot South Korean director Bong Joon Ho‘s class-warfare freak-out “Parasite.” If the All Star Top 24 are smart, they know that the highly praised film might end up like last-year’s Mexican contender “Roma” and have to settle for foreign-language prize while missing out on Best Picture.

I also found it interesting that “Joker” has more backers among the Experts — 17 vs. 13 –than the Top 24, given that fanboys would seem to gravitate towards this disturbing origin story about Batman’s arch-nemesis. Then again, both groups are mostly zeroing in on the same pool of titles, give or take a few. I find it odd that the Experts seem to be underwhelmed by “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood,” with Tom Hanks‘ sly yet sincere spot-on performance as the one and only Mr. Rogers. But maybe nice is not where it’s at right now.

PREDICT the Oscars nominations; change them until January 13

Be sure to make your Oscar nominee predictions today so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions as often as you like until just before nominees are announced on January 13. And join in the fun debate over the 2020 Academy Awards taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our film forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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