Oscar predictions: ‘The Irishman’ leaps into Best Picture lead, say Experts

Time to dance a jig! Gold Derby’s Oscar Experts have pushed Martin Scorsese‘s “The Irishman” into first place among Best Picture contenders, thanks to 15 choosing it to win compared to 11 who are sticking with Quentin Tarantino‘s “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” as the top choice.

The pro-Scorsese squad: Jen Chaney (Vulture),  Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior), Tim Gray (Variety), Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere), Perri Nemiroff (Collider), Erik Davis (Fandango),  Kevin Polowy (Yahoo), Wilson Morales (Black Film), Tariq Khan (Fox TV), Anne Thompson (Indiewire), Michael Musto (NewNowNext) and Gold Derby’s Susan King, Thelma Adams, Tom O’Neil and myself.

The QT supporters: Christopher Rosen (TVGuide.com), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Jazz Tangcay and Sasha Stone (Awards Daily),  Claudia Puig (KPCC), Matthew Jacobs (HuffPo), Keith Simanton (IMDb), Nikki Novak (Fandango) and Eric Deggans (NPR) and Joyce Eng and Jack Mathews (Gold Derby).

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Meanwhile, two Experts are going out on a limb for Noah Baumbach‘s “Marriage Story” picking it to go all the way: Brian Truitt (USA Today) and Scott Mantz (Collider).

But on the Oscar odds chart that combines the Experts’ views with predictions by more than 3,000 Gold Derby Users, “Hollywood” still is ahead in that race with 7/1 odds compared to 15/2 for “The Irishman.” When examining different racetrack odds that are generated only by the Experts’ predictions, it’s interesting to note that the only other change in the Top 10 ranking over the past week — other than “The Irishman” breaking loose from its tie with “Hollywood” — was “1917” moving up to ninth place over “The Farewell.”

SEE Al Pacino’s 25 greatest films ranked worst to best

Below is an update on the Experts’ Oscar prediction odds as of October 8. Make your predictions, which will be factored into Gold Derby’s combined, official racetrack odds. All predictions are updated automatically once per hour.

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1. “The Irishman” – 7/1
2. “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” – 15/2
3. “Marriage Story” – 17/2
4. “Jojo Rabbit” – 21/2
5. “Parasite” – 13/1
6. “Ford v Ferrari” – 14/1
7. “Little Women” – 15/1
8. “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood” – 18/1
9. “1917” – 18/1
10.”The Farewell” – 20/1

1. Martin Scorsese, “The Irishman” – 39/10
2. Quentin Tarantino, “Once Upon a Time in America” – 4/1
3. Noah Baumbach, “Marriage Story” – 6/1
4. Bong Joon-jo, “Parasite” – 7/1
5. Greta Gerwig, “Little Women” – 14/1

Changes since last week: Gerwig burst into the top 5, bumping Taika Waititi (“Jojo Rabbit”).

1. Renee Zellweger, “Judy” – 17/5
2. Scarlett Johansson, “Marriage Story” – 4/1
3. Saoirse Ronan, “Little Women” – 11/2
4. Awkwafina, “The Farewell” – 7/1
5. Cynthia Erivo, “Harriet” – 7/1

Change: Awkwafina took over the fourth rung from Erivo.

1. Adam Driver, “Marriage Story” – 4/1
2. Joaquin Phoenix, “Joker” – 9/2
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” – 13/2
4. Robert De Niro, “The Irishman” – 13/2
5. Antonio Banderas, “Pain and Glory” – 15/2

Change: Banderas claimed the fifth spot from Jonathan Pryce (“The Two Popes”).

1. Laura Dern, “Marriage Story” – 19/5
2. Jennifer Lopez, “Hustlers” – 11/2
2. Annette Bening, “The Report” – 6/1
3. Shuzhen Zhou, “The Farewell” – 8/1
5. Margot Robbie, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” – 23/2

1. Brad Pitt, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” – 18/5
2. Tom Hanks, “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood” – 9/2
3. Al Pacino, “The Irishman” – 5/1
4. Anthony Hopkins, “The Two Popes” – 17/2
5. Willem Dafoe, “The Lighthouse” – 13/1

1. “The Irishman” – 37/10
2. Jojo Rabbit” – 9/2
3. “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood” – 5/1
4. “Little Women” – 6/1
5. “Joker” – 21/2

1. “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” – 37/10
2. “Marriage Story” – 39/10
3. “Parasite” – 9/2
4. “The Farewell” – 7/1
5. “Pain and Glory” – 12/1

See odds in more top Oscar categories.

PREDICT the Oscars nominations; change them until January 13

Be sure to make your Oscar nominee predictions today so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions as often as you like until just before nominees are announced on January 13. And join in the fun debate over the 2020 Academy Awards taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our film forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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