“OK, Oscar fans, we have heard from the major guilds, we haven’t heard from BAFTA, the Oscars are weeks away. What’s really ahead for Best Picture?” Thus is the question Gold Derby’s Jockey in Chief Tom O’Neil poses to managing editor Chris Beachum and senior editors Daniel Montgomery and Susan Wloszczyna in our latest slugfest debate (watch it above). He admits he “doesn’t have a clue,” yet that has never stopped him from discussing at length the chances of any of the eight nominees this year to take the Academy Award’s top prize.
He has a prediction but not a lot of confidence in it. Therefore, he turns to Beachum to size matters up since “Green Book” won the PGA and the musical or comedy Golden Globe, “Roma” took the DGA and “Black Panther” took SAG’s ensemble honor. Beachum declares it a fun race because “you could make a strong case for four of them.” He has had “Roma” on top for two or three weeks and director Alfonso Cuaron‘s ode to his ’70s childhood in Mexico City is by far the front-runner on the Gold Derby combined odds chart for picture, director, cinematography and foreign language. Will it hold its ground for the final balloting or will it be arrivederci in favor of another film?
But Beachum isn’t entirely confident in it. For one thing, he points out that a foreign-language winner that was also up for Best Picture has never claimed both. Then again, “Roma” hasn’t been saddled with any of the negative backstories that “Bohemian Rhapsody” and “Green Book” have experienced. “There is a lot of wishful thinking involved with ‘BlacKkKlansman,” says Wloszczyna says. “People think it is ridiculous that Spike Lee has never gotten his just deserts” when it comes to Oscar recognition beyond a honorary statuette in 2015. But, “I’d rather it was ‘Do the Right Thing’ and not ‘BlacKkKlansman,’ and I like ‘BlacKkKlansman.’ “
Montgomery offers a reason why it could win. He looks for the title that has the fewest negatives and the least divisiveness.”Right now, I think ‘BlacKkKlansman’ — that could be your ‘Spotlight’ this year, where it wins screenplay and Best Picture out of nowhere.” Later on in the slugfest, the editors dig deep into the acting races especially the Rami Malek vs. Christian Bale conundrum.
Be sure to check out how our experts rank this year’s Oscar contenders. Then take a look at the most up-to-date combined odds before you make your own 2019 Oscar predictions. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on February 24.