One of the biggest surprises on Oscar nominations morning was the Best Supporting Actress mention for Marina de Tavira. The “Roma” star made the shortlist with zero precursor support, but don’t be so quick to dismiss her chances as “the nomination is the reward.” Two of our 33 Experts are picking de Tavira to go all the way.
Tariq Khan (Fox TV) and Christopher Rosen (TV Guide) are the brave souls calling the de Tavira upset. Thirty are sticking with Regina King (“If Beale Street Could Talk”), while one, Eric Deggans (NPR), is betting on another upset by Amy Adams (“Vice”). Interestingly, no one is predicting BAFTA winner Rachel Weisz (“The Favourite”), who’s in second place behind King in our combined odds. Less surprising is the goose egg for Weisz’s co-star Emma Stone.
Khan laid out some reasons he’s picking de Tavira here, including the lack of a frontrunner in the race. King was and still is the favorite, but her momentum took two huge hits when she couldn’t even get a nomination at the Screen Actors Guild Awards and BAFTAs, the only two industry groups with membership overlap with the academy. A SAG win for the Oscar-snubbed Emily Blunt (“A Quiet Place”) and a BAFTA win for Weisz, a previous Oscar champ competing against a co-star, create the type of fractured race ripe for a surprise.
SEE 5 reasons why Marina de Tavira could pull off an upset at the Oscars
De Tavira could be a case of where the hardest part was getting in. Now that she’s in, all bets are off. She’s in a top Best Picture contender that co-leads the field with 10 nominations, and there’s obviously passion for her performance for her to make the cut with no mentions from critics groups or the major televised precursors. Even Marcia Gay Harden, the only person to win the Oscar without Golden Globe and SAG nominations, nabbed the New York Film Critics Circle’s Best Supporting Actress prize for “Pollock” (2000).
Harden prevailed in an even more splintered year — the five televised awards went to five different people — but like Harden, de Tavira is a complete unknown factor in this race. She is untested against all of these people, so just because she didn’t have the opportunity to beat them before, that doesn’t mean she can’t.
PREDICT the Oscar winners now; change them until Feb. 24
Be sure to check out how our experts rank this year’s Oscar contenders. Then take a look at the most up-to-date combined odds before you make your own 2019 Oscar predictions. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on Feb. 24.
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