It won’t be perfect this year (sorry, Emily!), but how often have the SAG Awards and Oscar winners matched?

After the same four people became the first quartet to run the table with all the major acting awards last year en route to Oscar gold, it’s refreshing to know that we definitely won’t get that sheep mentality rubber-stamping this year.

The Golden Globe Best Actor champs Christian Bale (“Vice”) and Rami Malek (“Bohemian Rhapsody”) have already split the Critics’ Choice (Bale) and Screen Actors Guild Awards (Malek). Globe and Critics’ Choice supporting actress winner Regina King (“If Beale Street Could Talk”) was snubbed at SAG and BAFTA. And SAG gave its supporting actress statuette to an Oscar snubbee, Emily Blunt (“A Quiet Place”), for the second time in four years, guaranteeing that the four SAG Awards winners — Glenn Close (“The Wife”) and Mahershala Ali (“Green Book”) being the others — won’t all go on to win the corresponding Oscar.

The SAG Awards has a good track record with the academy. Over its 24-year history, SAG has only deviated five times in Best Actor, six times in Best Actress, nine times in Best Supporting Actor and now eight times in Best Supporting Actress. SAG has agreed 4/4 with Oscar seven times. The best it can do this year is 3/4, which is the most common match, having happened 11 times. SAG has gone 2/4 and 1/4 with Oscar three times each, and has never gone 0/4.

SEE Emily Blunt’s shocking SAG win means Best Supporting Actress Oscar race is shaping up EXACTLY like Mark Rylance’s year

With Blunt’s and King’s snubs, this year would be another forced split, like when Mark Rylance (“Bridge of Spies”) nabbed the supporting actor Oscar over SAG champ and Oscar snubbee Idris Elba (“Beasts of No Nation”) three years ago. Or when Kate Winslet took home the Best Actress Oscar for “The Reader” (2008) after winning the SAG Award in supporting.

Best Supporting Actress notwithstanding, could Oscar diverge from the SAG Awards in another race? Close and Ali are far ahead in their respective categories in our odds, but Best Actor is very tight between Bale and Malek right now, with Bale having the slight edge at 7/2 odds to 71/20.

Here’s how SAG and Oscar have matched up in the past:

1994: 3/4
SAG: Tom Hanks (“Forrest Gump”), Jodie Foster (“Nell”), Martin Landau (“Ed Wood”), Dianne Wiest (“Bullets Over Broadway”)

Oscar:
 Hanks, Jessica Lange (“Blue Sky”), Landau, Wiest

1995: 2/4
SAG: Nicolas Cage (“Leaving Las Vegas”), Susan Sarandon (“Dead Man Walking”), Ed Harris (“Apollo 13”), Kate Winslet (“Sense and Sensibility”)

Oscar: Cage, Sarandon, Kevin Spacey (“The Usual Suspects”), Mira Sorvino (“Mighty Aphrodite”)

1996: 3/4
SAG: Geoffrey Rush (“Shine”), Frances McDormand (“Fargo”), Cuba Gooding Jr. (“Jerry Maguire”), Lauren Bacall (“The Mirror Has Two Faces”)

Oscar: Rush, McDormand, Gooding, Juliette Binoche (“The English Patient”)

1997: 4/4*
SAG and Oscar: Jack Nicholson (“As Good as It Gets”), Helen Hunt (“As Good as It Gets”), Robin Williams (“Good Will Hunting”), Kim Basinger (“L.A. Confidential”)

*
Basinger won the SAG in a tie with Gloria Stuart (“Titanic”).

SEE Mahershala Ali just did something that’s never been done before at the SAG Awards

1998: 2/4
SAG: Roberto Benigni (“Life Is Beautiful”), Gwyneth Paltrow (“Shakespeare in Love”), Robert Duvall (“A Civil Action”), Kathy Bates (“Primary Colors”)

Oscar: Benigni, Paltrow, James Coburn (“Affliction”), Judi Dench (“Shakespeare in Love”)

1999: 3/4
SAG: Kevin Spacey (“American Beauty”), Annette Bening (“American Beauty”), Michael Caine (“The Cider House Rules”), Angelina Jolie (“Girl, Interrupted”)

Oscar: Spacey, Hilary Swank (“Boys Don’t Cry”), Caine, Jolie

2000: 1/4*
SAG: Benicio del Toro (“Traffic”), Julia Roberts (“Erin Brockovich”), Albert Finney (“Erin Brockovich”), Judi Dench (“Chocolat”)

Oscar: Russell Crowe (“Gladiator”), Roberts, del Toro, Marcia Gay Harden (“Pollock”)

*Del Toro won the SAG in lead and the Oscar in supporting, while Harden was not nominated at SAG.

2001: 1/4*
SAG: Russell Crowe (“A Beautiful Mind”), Halle Berry (“Monster’s Ball”), Ian McKellen (“The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring”), Helen Mirren (“Gosford Park”)

Oscar: Denzel Washington (“Training Day”), Berry, Jim Broadbent (“Iris”), Jennifer Connelly (“A Beautiful Mind”)

*Connelly was nominated in lead at SAG and won the Oscar in supporting.

SEE Emily Blunt is the 2nd performer to get double-snubbed by Oscar after double SAG Awards nominations

2002: 1/4
SAG: Daniel Day-Lewis (“Gangs of New York”), Renee Zellweger (“Chicago”), Christopher Walken (“Catch Me If You Can”), Catherine Zeta-Jones (“Chicago”)

Oscar: Adrien Brody (“The Pianist”), Nicole Kidman (“The Hours”), Chris Cooper (“Adaptation”), Zeta-Jones

2003: 3/4
SAG: Johnny Depp (“Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl”), Charlize Theron (“Monster”), Tim Robbins (“Mystic River”), Renee Zellweger (“Cold Mountain”)

Oscar: Sean Penn (“Mystic River”), Theron, Robbins, Zellweger

2004: 4/4
SAG and Oscar: Jamie Foxx (“Ray”), Hilary Swank (“Million Dollar Baby”), Morgan Freeman (“Million Dollar Baby”), Cate Blanchett (“The Aviator”)

2005: 3/4
SAG: Philip Seymour Hoffman (“Capote”), Reese Witherspoon (“Walk the Line”), Paul Giamatti (“Cinderella Man”), Rachel Weisz (“The Constant Gardener”)

Oscar: Hoffman, Witherspoon, George Clooney (“Syriana”), Weisz

SEE If Glenn Close and Regina King win Oscars, it’ll be the 1st time in 13 years that neither is from a Best Picture nominee

2006: 3/4
SAG: Forest Whitaker (“The Last King of Scotland”), Helen Mirren (“The Queen”), Eddie Murphy (“Dreamgirls”), Jennifer Hudson (“Dreamgirls”)

Oscar: Whitaker, Mirren, Alan Arkin (“Little Miss Sunshine”), Hudson

2007: 2/4
SAG: Daniel Day-Lewis (“There Will Be Blood”), Julie Christie (“Away From Her”), Javier Bardem (“No Country for Old Men”), Ruby Dee (“American Gangster”)

Oscar: Day-Lewis, Marion Cotillard (“La Vie en Rose”), Bardem, Tilda Swinton (“Michael Clayton”)

2008: 3/4*
SAG: Sean Penn (“Milk”), Meryl Streep (“Doubt”), Heath Ledger (“The Dark Knight”), Kate Winslet (“The Reader”)

Oscar: Penn, Winslet, Ledger, Penelope Cruz (“Vicky Cristina Barcelona”)

*Winslet won the SAG in supporting and the Oscar in lead.

2009: 4/4
SAG and Oscar: Jeff Bridges (“Crazy Heart”), Sandra Bullock (“The Blind Side”), Christoph Waltz (“Inglourious Basterds”), Mo’Nique (“Precious”)

SEE Glenn Close would be the 13th Best Actress Oscar champ as the sole nominee for her film

2010: 4/4
SAG and Oscar: Colin Firth (“The King’s Speech”), Natalie Portman . (“Black Swan”), Christian Bale (“The Fighter”), Melissa Leo (“The Fighter”)

2011: 3/4
SAG: Jean Dujardin (“The Artist”), Viola Davis (“The Help”), Christopher Plummer (“Beginners”), Octavia Spencer (“The Help”)

Oscar: Dujardin, Streep (“The Iron Lady”), Plummer, Spencer

2012: 3/4*
SAG: Daniel Day-Lewis (“Lincoln”), Jennifer Lawrence (“Silver Linings Playbook”), Tommy Lee Jones (“Lincoln”), Anne Hathaway (“Les Miserables”)

Oscar: Day-Lewis, Lawrence, Christoph Waltz (“Django Unchained”), Hathaway

*Waltz was not nominated at SAG.

2013: 4/4
SAG and Oscar: Matthew McConaughey (“Dallas Buyers Club”), Cate Blanchett (“Blue Jasmine”), Jared Leto (“Dallas Buyers Club”), Lupita Nyong’o (“12 Years a Slave”)

SEE Rami Malek could join elite club of actors who won the Emmy and Oscar on their 1st try

2014: 4/4
SAG and Oscar: Eddie Redmayne (“The Theory of Everything”), Julianne Moore (“Still Alice”), J.K. Simmons (“Whiplash”), Patricia Arquette (“Boyhood”)

2015: 3/4*
SAG: Leonardo DiCaprio (“The Revenant”), Brie Larson (“Room”), Idris Elba (“Beasts of No Nation”), Alicia Vikander (“The Danish Girl”)

Oscar: DiCaprio, Larson, Mark Rylance (“Bridge of Spies”), Vikander

*Elba was not nominated at the Oscars.

2016: 3/4
SAG: Denzel Washington (“Fences”), Emma Stone (“La La Land”), Mahershala Ali (“Moonlight”), Viola Davis (“Fences”)

Oscar: Casey Affleck (“Manchester by the Sea”), Stone, Ali, Davis

2017: 4/4
SAG and Oscar: Gary Oldman (“Darkest Hour”), Frances McDormand (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”), Sam Rockwell (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”), Allison Janney (“I, Tonya”)

PREDICT the Oscar winners now; change them until Feb. 24

Be sure to make your Oscar predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on Feb. 4. And join in the fierce debate over the 2019 Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our movie forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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