What do Golden Globes wins (and losses) mean for Oscars?

The Golden Globes, now in its 76th year, offers one of the best previews of what will win at the Academy Awards. These precursor prizes, bestowed by the Hollywood Foreign Press Assn.,were handed out on Sunday (Jan. 7), the day before Oscars nominations voting began. The results of the Golden Globes (see the complete list of winners) may well make a difference in how the members of the academy cast their ballots.

So, with all of the surprises on Sunday, you may be thinking of changing your Oscar predictions before those nominations are announced on Jan. 22. But should you bow to temptation? Let’s take a closer look at the Golden Globes results and see what films are up, down and doing about the same in the race for the Oscars.

SEE How were Golden Globe winners decided by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association?

UP

“Bohemian Rhapsody”
The biopic won only two awards but they were big ones: Best Drama over, among others, “A Star is Born” and Best Drama Actor for Rami Malek. That victory over triple nominee Bradley Cooper (“A Star is Born”) now gives him an edge in the race for the Oscar.

“Green Book”
We had predicted Mahershala Ali to prevail for his supporting performance but that win for Best Comedy/Musical over the likes of “The Favourite” and “Vice” was a big surprise as was the one for Best Screenplay. This could be a film that continues to overperform (remember it also got an unexpected bid for helmer Peter Farrelly, who shared in that scripting win.)

“If Beale Street Could Talk”
Barry Jenkins‘s film about a black man in jail for a crime he didn’t commit only went one for three. However that win by Regina King gave her a much-needed boost after being snubbed by the SAG Awards. She certainly passed her Oscar audition with her heartfelt acceptance speech.

“The Wife”
King did well but the Queen of the Golden Globes was Glenn Close, who pulled off a huge upset in Best Drama Actress by winning over frontrunner Lady Gaga (“A Star is Born”).  She had the crowd standing for her impassioned speech which hit all the right notes.

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DOWN

“A Star is Born”
This remake of the classic Hollywood tale won just one of its five bids: Best Song (“Shallow”). Bradley Cooper was outpaced in all three of his races as producer, director and actor.

“BlacKklansman”
The biopic lost all four of its races including acting bids by John David Washington and Adam Driver, and one in directing for Spike Lee, who hadn’t contended at the Globes since “Do the Right Thing” (1989).

“The Favourite”
While leading lady Olivia Colman won, this biopic lost three races where it was thought to be a strong contender – Comedy/Musical, Supporting Actress (for both Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz) and Screenplay.

“Mary Poppins Returns”
This long-awaited sequel also lost all four of its races, including Best Comedy/Musical Actress for Emily Blunt, who had hoped to ride a win to an Oscar nomination.

“Vice”
The film came into the evening with a leading six nominations but won only a single award. Eight years after winning the supporting actor prize for “The Fighter,” Christian Bale claimed his second career Golden Globe for portraying another real-life person, politico Dick Cheney.

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ABOUT THE SAME

“Black Panther”
While it lost all three of its bids, that this comic book come to life was in the conversation was an achievement. The HFPA loves blockbusters but had spurned even “The Dark Knight” so the fact that this Marvel movie earned a Best Drama bid was already a win.

“Roma”
As predicted Alfonso Cuaron won for directing (but lost for writing) and shared in the win for Best Foreign Language Film (it wasn’t eligible for Best Film Drama).

PREDICT the Oscar nominations now; change them until January 22

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