Or maybe not.
Though the Globes have been considered a leading bellwether for the Academy Awards, the Hollywood Foreign Press Assn. and the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences have agreed to disagree numerous times in major categories over the past 75 years.
In fact, the very first Golden Globes ceremony selected the religious drama “The Song of Bernadette” as the best film of 1943, while the Oscar for best picture went to the beloved “Casablanca.”
Even last year, Guillermo del Toro’s romantic fantasy “The Shape of Water” won four Oscars including best film and director. But the Globes chose “Lady Bird” for best picture musical or comedy and “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” won best drama. Del Toro did win the Globe for director.
Checking out Golden Globes best drama winners for the past decade, the academy and HPFA only agreed four times in its choice for top prize: 2008’s “Slumdog Millionaire,” 2011’s “Argo” 2013’s “12 Years a Slave” and 2016’s “Moonlight”
Countless Globe nominees and winners never were even nominated for an Oscar for the year they won the HFPA honor.
The HFPA gave its best director prize to Barbra Streisand for her 1983 directorial debut “Yenta.” Streisand, who won Oscars for Best Actress for 1968’s “Funny Girl” and song for 1976’s “Evergreen,” never received an academy nomination in the directing category. And the Oscars didn’t award a woman for best director until 26 years later when Kathryn Bigelow won for “The Hurt Locker.”
After a then 40-year-plus career, Clint Eastwood scored two Oscars for directing and producing the 1992 best film “The Unforgiven” as well as earning an Oscar nomination for lead actor for the seminal Western drama. But the Golden Globes had awarded him for his directing four years earlier for “Bird,”
his ambitious bio-pic on jazz legend Charlie Parker. “Bird” only received one Oscar nomination, which it won, in the best sound category. The Academy Awards was given to director Barry Levinson for the best film winner “Rain Man.”
Here’s a look at the history of the different choices the two organizations have made:
William Wyler won his second-best director Oscar for the 1946 best picture winner “The Best Years of Our Lives.” Though “Years” also won the top Golden Globe, it was Frank Capra who took home the Golden Globe for “It’s Wonderful Life.”
Joseph L. Mankiewicz’s 1950 “All About Eve” won six Academy Awards including best film, director and screenplay. But Billy Wilder’s masterpiece “Sunset Boulevard” won the Globes for best film drama and best director.
Peter Ustinov won his second-best supporting actor Oscar for the 1964 “Topkapi,” but he wasn’t even nominated a Golden Globe for the hit comedy. And can you believe “Chim Chim Cher-ee,” the Oscar-winning best song from “Mary Poppins” wasn’t even nominated for a Globe that year? The Golden Globe went to “Circus World” from the John Wayne film of the same name. Ironically, none of the songs from “Mary Poppins Returns” earned any Globe nominations.
The academy shocked audiences at the 1970 Oscar ceremony awarding-for the first and only time – best film to an X-rated movie- “Midnight Cowboy,” with Academy Awards going to the picture’s director John Schlesinger and former blacklisted screenwriter Waldo Salt. The HFPA went more conservative in its choices with the historical drama “Anne of the Thousand Days” named best film drama and ts star Genevieve Bujold winning best actress drama and Charles Jarrott taking home best director. Maggie Smith won the Oscar for best actress for “The Prime of Miss Jean Brodie.”
At the 1971 Golden Globes, “Love Story” was named best film drama with the weepie’s star Ali MacGraw winning best actress in a drama, George C. Scott receiving best actor in a drama for “Patton” and Arthur Hiller winning best director for “Love Story.” Robert Altman’s “MASH” was named best film in the comedy or musical category.
“Love Story” only won the Oscar for Francis Lai’s score; the big winner was “Patton,” Franklin Schaffner’s epic bio-pic on General George F. Patton. The picture earned seven Academy including film, director and Scott, who refused the honor. The Oscar for best actress went to British actress Glenda Jackson for “Women in Love.”
Be sure to check out how our experts rank this year’s Oscar contenders. Then take a look at the most up-to-date combined odds before you make your own Oscar predictions. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominations are announced on January 22.