‘Ozark’ is about to explode at the Emmys, just like ‘Breaking Bad’ did 10 years ago

The first season of Netflix’s “Ozark” scored five Emmy nominations last year, including two alone for Jason Bateman (Best Drama Actor and Best Drama Directing). While those numbers are adequate, they’re nothing compared to the Emmy explosion that this gritty money-laundering drama is likely to experience this year. In fact, its Emmy trajectory could very well mimic a TV show from exactly 10 years ago: AMC’s “Breaking Bad.”

“Breaking Bad’s” first Emmy cycle resulted in only four nominations in 2008, including one for Bryan Cranston (Best Drama Actor) and one for showrunner Vince Gilligan (Best Drama Directing). Cranston took home the first of four trophies that year, with the others coming in 2009, 2010 and 2014. It wasn’t until Season 2 that “Breaking Bad” received its first-ever bid for Best Drama Series. It would be nominated in this pivotal category five times total, winning twice (2013-14).

SEE Jason Bateman (‘Ozark’) could win first Emmy after triumphing at SAG: Redemption for ‘Arrested Development’?

That second season is also when supporting player Aaron Paul received his first Emmy bid in 2019, proving that voters were willing to branch out and nominate a cast member who was still relatively unknown. Paul later claimed victory in 2010, 2012 and 2014, setting a record in the Best Drama Supporting Actor category that was only recently tied by Peter Dinklage (“Game of Thrones”).

One reason pundits are so confident that “Ozark” will explode at the 2019 Emmys is because of its strong showing at the recent guild awards. It dominated at the SAG Awards with four nominations: ensemble cast, Bateman as Marty Byrde, Laura Linney as Wendy Byrde and Julia Garner as Ruth Langmore. Bateman prevailed over Sterling K. Brown (“This Is Us”), Joseph Fiennes (“The Handmaid’s Tale”), John Krasinski (“Tom Clancy’s Jack Ryan”) and Bob Odenkirk (“Better Call Saul”).

SEE 2019 Emmy predictions in 16 major categories

The show also took home a trophy at the 2019 Motion Picture Sound Editors Awards. As for guild nominations, “Ozark’s” second season was recognized by the American Cinema Editors, Art Directors Guild, Cinema Audio Society, Directors Guild of America, Producers Guild of America and Writers Guild of America. In addition, Bateman scored a second consecutive bid at the Golden Globes, but lost to Richard Madden (“Bodyguard”).

According to Gold Derby’s racetrack odds, Bateman is predicted to mirror his SAG win with an Emmy triumph for Best Drama Actor. This would be his first career Emmy victory after coming up short for “Arrested Development.” In some of the other above-the-line categories, “Ozark” is in fifth place for a Best Drama Series nomination, while Linney is in third place for Best Drama Actress and Garner is in third place for Best Drama Supporting Actress.

PREDICT the Emmys now; change them until July 16

Be sure to make your Emmy predictions today so that Hollywood insiders can see how their TV shows and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions as often as you like until just before nominations are announced on July 16. And join in the fun debate over the 2019 Emmy taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our television forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

SIGN UP for Gold Derby’s newsletter with experts’ latest predictions

More News from GoldDerby