Who’s up (‘Parasite,’ ‘Bombshell’), who’s down (‘The Two Popes’) in Oscar race after SAG Awards nominations?

The SAG Awards nominations came on December 11 just two days after the Golden Globes revealed their picks, and they have already changed what we thought we learned about this year’s awards trajectory. These awards are even more consequential than the Globes since they’re awarded by industry insiders just like the Oscars are. So which films are on the right track, and which ones took a hit? Find out below, and check out the complete list of nominations here.

UP

Bombshell — Its relative shortfall at the Golden Globes was concerning, only getting two acting nominations for Charlize Theron and Margot Robbie. But it did twice as well at the SAG Awards, getting a third individual acting nom for Nicole Kidman plus a bid for its ensemble cast. That puts it back on track in its race for Oscar nominations, and maybe even wins, especially for Theron and Robbie. It probably didn’t hurt that the SAG Awards are decided by a wide variety of media professionals and the film is set in a TV newsroom.

“Jojo Rabbit” — It could just as easily have been shut out at the SAG Awards, but instead it got nominations for its ensemble cast and for Scarlett Johansson‘s supporting performance. Since only three Best Picture Oscar winners have ever failed to secure a top nomination from this guild (“Braveheart,” “The Shape of Water” and “Green Book”), that’s a big boost for the World War II satire.

“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” — It didn’t over-perform in these nominations: it got exactly the four it seemed likely to get: for its cast, for its stunt ensemble, and for Leonardo DiCaprio and Brad Pitt‘s individual performances. But between the Critics’ Choice Awards, SAG Awards and Golden Globes this week, this is one of the only films that hasn’t missed any key nominations in top categories. So for Quentin Tarantino‘s ode to 1960s showbiz, it’s all upside, no downside.

Parasite — It probably wouldn’t have hurt the Korean thriller’s chances if it had been shut out at the SAG Awards, which rarely go for foreign films, so the fact that it managed a surprise nomination for its ensemble cast is a huge vote of confidence. “Roma” didn’t even pull that off last year when it was one of the top contenders for Oscars. Anyone who wasn’t taking this film seriously as a Best Picture threat before had better do so now.

DOWN

“Little Women” — Is this literary adaptation getting hurt by the fact that it screened relatively late for media and awards voters (it wasn’t ready for audience eyeballs until late-October)? Whatever the reason, it was completely shut out by the guild after under-performing at the Golden Globes two days earlier. It did clean up in the Critics’ Choice nominations before that, but it may be on shaky ground.

“Marriage Story” — Honestly, I don’t think this film’s SAG Awards snub for its ensemble cast is all that dire. It earned three individual acting noms (leads Adam Driver and Johansson, supporting actress Laura Dern), which still makes it one of the most nominated films at the event, and apart from those core three cast members, the film isn’t as big a showcase for the rest of its supporting players. But for such an acting-driven film, missing that nomination certainly doesn’t help.

The Two Popes — It was the best of times, it was the worst of times for this papal drama, which cleaned up in the Globe nominations only to be completely shut out by SAG — no nominations for lead actor Jonathan Pryce or supporting actor Anthony Hopkins. So this week has been a holy roller coaster for the film.

ABOUT THE SAME

“The Irishman”Robert De Niro missing out on an individual nomination here right after he was snubbed at the Globes isn’t good for him or the film, but it’s possible the guild didn’t feel the need to nominate him since he’s already taking home their Life Achievement Award. And the film still topped the nominations list with bids for its cast, supporting actors Al Pacino and Joe Pesci, and a surprising nom for its stunt ensemble. So the Netflix mob epic is holding steady.

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