Regina King (‘If Beale Street Could Talk’) is still the Golden Globes front-runner, SAG Awards snub be damned

For a while there it looked like Regina King might stroll across the Oscars finish line uncontested for her supporting role in “If Beale Street Could Talk,” especially after she swept the early critics’ awards. But then the film was unexpectedly shut out by the Screen Actors Guild. Can she rebound from that snub? According to the combined predictions of thousands of Gold Derby users, she’ll get back on track on January 6 at the Golden Globes, where she’s still the front-runner to win Best Film Supporting Actress.

As of this writing King gets leading odds of 17/5, with 12 out of 18 Expert journalists we’ve polled giving her their vote of confidence: Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Erik Davis (Fandango), Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior), Joyce Eng (Gold Derby), Susan King (Gold Derby), Alicia Malone (Turner Classic Movies), Wilson Morales (BlackFilm), Michael Musto (NewNowNext), Christopher Rosen (TVGuide.com), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Adnan Virk (ESPN) and Susan Wloszczyna (Gold Derby).

This would be King’s first Golden Globe, but we know they love her this year since she’s nominated twice. She also contends for Best Movie/Limited Actress for her role in the Netflix limited series “Seven Seconds.” And voters like “Beale Street” since it’s also nominated for Best Film Drama.

The Golden Globes and Oscars have agreed on Best Supporting Actress for 8 of the last 10 years. The only exceptions were Jennifer Lawrence (“American Hustle”), who beat the eventual Oscar winner Lupita Nyong’o (“12 Years a Slave”) in 2013, and Kate Winslet (“Steve Jobs”), who beat Oscar champ Alicia Vikander in 2015. But 2015 was a unique case. Vikander won the Oscar for “The Danish Girl,” but she was nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the Globes for “Ex Machina”; “Danish Girl” was classified as a lead role by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. So there’s a strong correlation between the Globes and Oscars in this race.

However, no one has won Best Supporting Actress at the Oscars without at least a nomination at the SAG Awards since Marcia Gay Harden for “Pollock” (2000). And SAG and Oscar have picked the same winner for the last nine years in a row, so even if King does succeed at the Globes her absence from those awards makes the race for Oscar as wide open as ever.

Be sure to make your Golden Globe predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions until winners are announced on January 6. And join in the fierce debate over the 2019 Golden Globes taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our movie forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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