We know for sure that, at best, only three of the four individual film winners at the SAG Awards on Sunday will be collecting Oscars on February 24; SAG Supporting Actress champ Emily Blunt (“A Quiet Place”) was snubbed by the academy. Each of the winners of the two lead acting awards — Rami Malek (“Bohemian Rhapsody) and Glenn Close (“The Wife”) — plus supporting actor champ Mahershala Ali (“Green Book”) prevailed against three other Oscar nominees.
Over the past 24 years, 71 of the 96 Oscar winners in the four individual acting races had first picked up SAG Awards.. (By comparison, only 12 of the SAG ensemble winners went on to win Best Picture at the Oscars.)
Let’s take closer look at how this overall success rate of 74% in the individual races breaks down and what it could mean for this year’s SAG Awards champs as we make predictions about the upcoming Academy Awards.
Best Actor:Rami Malek (“Bohemian Rhapsody”)
Malek won over three Oscar rivals [Christian Bale (“Vice”), Bradley Cooper (“A Star Is Born”) and Viggo Mortensen (“Green Book”)] plus John David Washington (“BlacKkKlansman”). The fifth Oscar nominee, Willem Dafoe (“At Eternity’s Gate”) was left off the list by the guild.
This is the category with the best success rate as a precursor with 19 of the 24 SAG winners going on to win Oscars (plus Benicio del Toro who won in supporting at Oscars for “Traffic”). Gary Oldman (“Darkest Hour”) won with the guild first last year. In 2017, Denzel Washington had ended a 12-year streak when he won at SAG for “Fences” but lost at the Oscars to Casey Affleck (“Manchester by the Sea”).
Best Actress: Glenn Close (“The Wife”)
Close won her first SAG Award on the film side, triumphing against three of the other Oscar nominees [Olivia Colman (“The Favourite”), Lady Gaga (“A Star is Born) and Melissa McCarthy (“Can You Ever Forgive Me?”] plus Emily Blunt (“Mary Poppins Returns”). The fifth Oscar nominee, Yalitza Aparicio (“Roma”), was snubbed by the guild.
The last six SAG Best Actress champs in a row went on to success at the Oscars, including last year’s double winner Frances McDormand (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”). In all, 18 of the SAG winners repeated at the Academy Awards.
Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali (“Moonlight”)
Ali won against three of his Oscar rivals [Adam Driver (“BlacKkKlansman”), Sam Elliott (“A Star Is Born”) and Richard E. Grant( “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”)] plus Timothee Chalamet (“Beautiful Boy”).
The fifth Oscar nominee, Sam Rockwell (“Vice”), was overlooked by the guild which is ironic given that he is the reigning champ for his performance in “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.” Rockwell was the lastest of the 15 SAG choices to add an Oscar to their mantle. Ali had done the same the year before for “Moonlight.”
Best Supporting Actress: Emily Blunt (“A Quiet Place”)
The streak that saw the last eight SAG winners repeat at the Oscars. In all 16 of the SAG choices were also those of the academy (plus Kate Winslet who won in lead at Oscars for “The Reader”).
Be sure to check out how our experts rank this year’s Oscar contenders. Then take a look at the most up-to-date combined odds before you make your own Oscar predictions. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until winners are announced on February 24.