How good is the SAG Awards at predicting the four acting winners at the Oscars?

Odds are that three of the four individual film winners at the SAG Awards on Sunday will be collecting Oscars on February 24. Over the past 24 years, 71 of the 96 Academy Awards winners in the four acting races had first collected SAG Awards. That individual success rate of 74% breaks down as follows:

Best Actor: 19 of the SAG winners went on to win Oscars (plus Benicio del Toro who won in supporting at Oscars for “Traffic”). Gary Oldman (“Darkest Hour”) won with the guild first last year. In 2017, Denzel Washington had ended a 12-year streak when he won at SAG for “Fences” but lost at the Oscars to Casey Affleck (“Manchester by the Sea”).

Best Actress: 18 of the SAG winners went on to victory at the Academy Awards. The last six SAG champs in a row pulled this off including last year’s double winner Frances McDormand (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”).

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Best Supporting Actor: 15 of the SAG choices also added an Oscar to their mantle, including last year’s dual victor Sam Rockwell (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”).

Best Supporting Actress: 17 of the SAG choices were also those of the academy (plus Kate Winslet who won in lead at Oscars for “The Reader”). The streak in this race has gone on for eight years, with the latest double dipper being Allison Janney for “I, Tonya.”

Historically, the likeliest outcome is that three of Sunday’s winners at the SAG Awards will repeat at the Oscars. That has happened 11 times in 24 years. Last year’s result of 4 for 4 has occurred just seven times. The guild has batted .500 three years and been off the mark in three of the four races another three. It has never been completely wrong.

How do you think the SAG Awards will do this year? Be sure to make your SAG predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds.

And join in the fierce debate over the 2019 SAG Awards taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our movie forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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