“If there’s one thing that we’ve learned about SAG in a post-Netflix world, it’s that SAG really loves Netflix,” Zach Laws explains to me and our fellow Gold Derby contributors Luca Giliberti and Tony Ruiz in a slugfest about our film nomination predictions for the Screen Actors Guild Awards (watch the video above). Two Netflix films — “The Irishman” and “Marriage Story” — could dominate and are favored in Gold Derby’s combined odds for the Best Ensemble category and Laws is even predicting a third for a nomination: “Dolemite is My Name.” Giliberti is going in a different direction with “Downton Abbey” and “Hustlers” instead after box office hits like “Bohemian Rhapsody” and “Crazy Rich Asians” were nominated over more critically-acclaimed fare like “The Favourite” and “Widows” last year.
I concur, but raise the issue of visibility: “Most importantly, I consider whether the SAG nominating committee has actually seen the film because SAG is voting very early — they started voting on November 14, but they are considering films that will be released through December 31.” The SAG nominating committee receives advance DVDs of upcoming releases, but only received the likes of “Bombshell” and “Little Woman” after our slugfest recording — over a week after voters were allowed to submit their ballots.
“I don’t have Charlize Theron and Saoirse Ronan in my predictions right now,” Laws adds along those lines, while explaining why he has space for “Us” lead Lupita Nyong’o in our Best Actress discussion that begins at 11:25 in the video. I point out that “All four of us also have Lupita Nyong’o and none of us are actually predicting her for an Oscar nomination” in spite of the usual overlap between the nominations, especially with such consensus contenders. We move on to Best Actor at 18:10, Best Supporting Actress at 24:55 and Best Supporting Actor at 31:25.
Make your SAG nominee predictions today so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions as often as you like until just before nominees are announced on December 11. And join in the fun debate over the 2020 SAG Awards taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our film forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.