For most of the season “Incredibles 2” has been the front-runner to win the Best Animated Feature Oscar in our racetrack odds, and it still is overall, but our Experts have had a change of heart. Most of them now think that “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse” will swing right past it on Oscar night.
We’ve polled more than two dozen Expert journalists from top media outlets, and as of this writing 16 of them are predicting “Spider-Man”: Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Erik Davis (Fandango), Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior), Joyce Eng (Gold Derby), Tim Gray (Variety), Alicia Malone (Turner Classic Movies), Wilson Morales (BlackFilm), Michael Musto (NewNowNext), Perri Nemiroff (Collider), Kevin Polowy (Yahoo), Christopher Rosen (TVGuide.com), Keith Simanton (IMDb), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Brian Truitt (USA Today), Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere) and Glenn Whipp (LA Times).
But there are still 11 Experts backing “Incredibles 2”: Bonnie Fuller (Hollywood Life), Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post), Tariq Khan (Fox TV), Scott Mantz (Collider), Jack Mathews (Gold Derby), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Krista Smith (Vanity Fair), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Anne Thompson (IndieWire), Adnan Virk (ESPN) and Susan Wloszczyna (Gold Derby).
When you combine the predictions of all Gold Derby users “Incredibles 2” still has the advantage with leading odds of 71/20, but it’s easy to see why the Experts think the momentum has shifted. Though the Oscars adore Pixar — the studio has won 9 times out of 11 nominations — they don’t usually like sequels (“Toy Story 3” is the only sequel that has ever won). Also, “Spider-Man” has been surging: it has grossed more than $200 million worldwide since its release on December 14, its reviews are among the best of the year, and it has won awards from Chicago, Los Angeles, New York and San Francisco film critics, among many other regional groups.
Do you agree with our Experts that “Spider-Man” now has the lead, or will “Incredibles 2” hold on until the Oscars?
Be sure to check out how our experts rank this year’s Oscar contenders. Then take a look at the most up-to-date combined odds before you make your own Oscar predictions. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominations are announced on January 22.