With only nine players left in “Survivor: Island of the Idols” the path to the end of the game is coming into focus. Of those left, five are from the original Vokai tribe (Lauren Beck, Janet Carbin, Noura Salman, Tommy Sheehan and Dan Spilo) and four are from the original Lairo tribe (Elizabeth Beisel, Dean Kowalski, Karishma Patel and Elaine Stott). A season that began with Vokai outplaying Lairo in challenges and women from both tribes outsmarting the men at tribal councils is now almost evenly blurred, leaving the door open for any one of the nine to outlast the others as sole survivor.
But although technically anyone can still win Season 39, we think there are four players in the game that have no realistic shot at the title. Below we break down our thoughts on those four players. In another article we discuss the five we think can win. Do you agree or disagree?
1. Elizabeth Beisel – 8/1 odds of winning
Elizabeth’s game took a major blow in the split-merge twist that sent her two biggest allies, Aaron Meredith and Missy Byrd, home in back to back tribal councils. Their eliminations leave Elizabeth with no true allies in the game, including Elaine who Missy made sure the rest of the game knew was a turncoat. I don’t know what Elizabeth’s path to the final could possibly be, but of the four I don’t think have a chance at winning I do think she has the best story to tell of all of them. Should she manage to get to the final she’ll have done so with a target on her back since the final 9 and will have a ton of friends on the jury, giving her a leg up on almost anyone she’s up against.
2. Noura Salman – 25/1 odds of winning
Like Karishma, it seems Noura is being dragged along as an ideal goat finalist for the other players. Noura was close to elimination very early in the game because of how annoying she can be around camp and, frankly, that attitude toward her doesn’t seem to have changed. What has changed, however, is everyone looking to the end and deciding that sitting next to her at the final could be an easy way to win. While I think the players that think she’s easy to beat are underestimating how cunning Noura can be, ultimately I agree that she probably won’t contend for the win. I would absolutely love to see her pitch in the final tribal council though so I hope she gets there!
3. Dean Kowalski – 18/1 odds of winning
4. Dan Spilo – 100/1 odds of winning
Despite being on different tribes throughout the pre-merge stage of the game, Dean and Dan are in eerily similar positions in the game. Neither is or ever was at the forefront of an alliance and neither has contributed any meaningful strategy to the game. Dean has had to do a little bit more maneuvering in the game ever since the Lairo blindside of his ally Chelsea Walker, but aside from that he’s basically just played the “as long as it isn’t me” game of playing from the middle. And that’s where Dan’s been, too, in the Vokai alliance though now he also brings his misconduct storyline to the table, which I think would become a narrative that dominates his conversation at a final tribal council, instead of him being able to focus on game moves which… what are those any way?
SEE exclusive predictions: Who will win ‘Survivor’?
Be sure to make your predictions to influence our reality TV racetrack odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before the next episode airs on CBS. You’ll compete to win a spot on our Season 39 leaderboard and eternal bragging rights. See our contest rules and sound off with other fans in our reality TV forum. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.