Will Taylor Swift become just the 4th to win Video of the Year at the VMAs twice as a lead artist?

Taylor Swift is on the cusp of joining an exclusive club at the MTV Video Music Awards. The country ingenue-turned-pop star is nominated for Video of the Year for the third time this year for her LGBT-affirming “You Need to Calm Down” (watch it above). She previously won top honors in 2015 for “Bad Blood” featuring Kendrick Lamar. So if she wins again, she’ll become only the fourth to claim the award twice as a lead artist.

The first to double up was rapper Eminem, who won twice in three years for “The Real Slim Shady” (2000) and “Without Me” (2002). Then Rihanna won both of her noms as a lead artist when she prevailed for “Umbrella” featuring Jay-Z (2007) and then “We Found Love” featuring Calvin Harris (2012). The most recent to join the two-timers club was Beyonce, who won for both “Single Ladies” (2009) and “Formation” (2016).

The VMA for Video of the Year is decided by fans voting online, and Swift can usually depend on her passionate Swiftie fan base to get her over the line. She’s already a seven-time winner overall, and this year she racked up a leading 10 nominations (tied with Ariana Grande), which is the same number she had when she won for “Bad Blood.”

However, Swift is in the unusual position of being an underdog this year. As of this writing we rank her third with 5/1 odds based on the combined predictions of hundreds of Gold Derby users. Grande is the front-runner with 69/20 odds for “Thank U, Next,” while Lil Nas X and Billy Ray Cyrus‘s historic hit “Old Town Road” ranks second with 4/1 odds. Nevertheless, Swift is backed by 3 of the Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s VMAs, so “Calm Down,” Swift fanatics. She’s not out of this race by a long shot.

Be sure to make your MTV Video Music Award predictions so that music executives and top name stars can see how they’re faring in our odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until winners are announced on August 26. And join in the fierce debate over the 2019 VMAs taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our music forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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