Should Timothee Chalamet be worried about his Oscar chances? After receiving a Best Actor nomination last year for “Call Me By Your Name” he looks like he’s on his way to a potential second bid this year for his supporting turn in “Beautiful Boy.” But as Gold Derby contributors Riley Chow, Rob Licuria, Amanda Spears and I point out in a recent slugfest on the acting races, he might be on shaky ground. Watch our entire video above.
Licuria points out that Chalamet “has been landing the right nominations throughout the season,” including recognition from SAG, Critics’ Choice, BAFTA and the Golden Globes. But that was also true of past contenders like Hong Chau in “Downsizing” (2017) and Daniel Bruhl in “Rush” (2013), who also had the right precursor support but didn’t end up with Oscar nominations. On the other hand, Licuria also notes the “leftover residual love from ‘Call Me By Your Name'” that could keep Chalamet on track for his second Oscar bid.
I’m currently sticking my neck out by predicting that Jonathan Pryce (“The Wife”) will join Mahershala Ali (“Green Book”), Adam Driver (“BlacKkKlansman”), Sam Elliott (“A Star Is Born”) and Richard E. Grant (“Can You Ever Forgive Me?”). Why? Because if they’re watching “The Wife” to see Glenn Close‘s potentially Oscar-winning performance, “then they’re seeing how good Jonathan Pryce is in it” too as her philandering husband. As we saw with Maggie Gyllenhall in “Crazy Heart” (2009) and Tom Hardy in “The Revenant” (2015), a strong lead-acting contender can sometimes pull in an out-of-nowhere supporting bid.
In Best Supporting Actress, Amy Adams (“Vice”), Regina King (“If Beale Street Could Talk”), Emma Stone (“The Favourite”), and Rachel Weisz (“The Favourite”) seem almost assured nominations, so who’s that pesky fifth slot going to? “I’m just going with Claire Foy,” says Spears. The “First Man” co-star looks ready for takeoff after scoring Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice and BAFTA bids. But Spears is rooting for Michelle Yeoh (“Crazy Rich Asians”). “It’s really heartbreaking that she’s just been ignored.”
Foy’s snub at the SAG Awards still concerns us, though, since the SAG Awards are decided by industry insiders like the Oscars are and often line up closely with the Oscar acting nominees. So Chow’s going with Margot Robbie (“Mary Queen of Scots”), who showed up at both the SAG and BAFTA Awards for her performance as Queen Elizabeth I.
But while there also may be room for Emily Blunt (“A Quiet Place”) or Nicole Kidman (“Boy Erased”) to surprise, Chow thinks we should also watch out for Linda Cardellini (“Green Book”). “She seems like the classic Jackie Weaver [“Silver Linings Playbook” in 2012] or Laura Dern [“Wild” in 2014],” he explains. Like those unexpected nominees, Cardellini has limited screen time but could get “carried along by goodwill and visibility” for her film.
The Best Actor category is giving us headaches as well, with critics darling Ethan Hawke (“First Reformed”) duking it out with Willem Dafoe (“At Eternity’s Gate”) and John David Washington (“BlacKkKlansman”) for the last spot alongside likely nominees Christian Bale (“Vice”), Bradley Cooper (“A Star Is Born”), Rami Malek (“Bohemian Rhapsody”), and Viggo Mortensen (“Green Book”). But are those top four set in stone? I’ve actually taken Mortensen out of my predictions because “he hasn’t won anything” aside from the National Board of Review prize. So I’m predicting Bale, Cooper, Hawke, Malek and Washington, with Dafoe as a potential spoiler.
In Best Actress, Close is hunting for a career-first victory, with Lady Gaga (“A Star Is Born”) and Olivia Colman (“The Favourite”) hoping to take her down. Melissa McCarthy (“Can You Ever Forgive Me?”) appears to be safe for a slot alongside them, but what about Blunt (“Mary Poppins Returns”), who hit a snag after missing at the BAFTAs? Licuria predicts that (literal) cult favorite Toni Collette (“Hereditary”) will join them, “and I just refuse to take her out.” She’ll have to scare off Yalitza Aparicio (“Roma”), Kidman (“Destroyer”), Rosamund Pike (“A Private War”), and Joanna Kulig (“Cold War”) if she wants to join this derby.
What surprises do you think that there will be? Make your Oscar predictions today so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions as often as you like until nominations are announced on January 22. And join in the debate taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our film forum.