Have the stars aligned for Tony Shalhoub (“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”) to win the Emmy for Best Comedy Supporting Actor? He was also nominated in this category last year for playing the title character’s high-strung dad Abe Weissman, but he lost to Henry Winkler (“Barry”). This year, though, the shoe is on the other foot, and the odds are ever in Shalhoub’s favor.
As of this writing Shalhoub is the front-runner with leading odds of 71/20 based on the combined predictions of thousands of Gold Derby’s registered users. Among those, he’s backed by 18 out of the 30 Expert journalists we’ve surveyed from top media outlets: Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Michael Ausiello (TVLine), Jen Chaney (Vulture), Debbie Day (Rotten Tomatoes), Joyce Eng (Gold Derby), Chris Harnick (E!), Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post), Kelly Lawler (USA Today), Wilson Morales (BlackFilm), Nikki Novak (Fandango), Robert Rorke (New York Post), Christopher Rosen (TVGuide.com), Jazz Tangcay (Awards Daily), Kaitlin Thomas (TVGuide.com), Anne Thompson (IndieWire), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Matt Webb Mitovich (TVLine) and Susan Wloszczyna (Gold Derby).
But that means there are a dozen other Experts who disagree with the consensus. Six of them predict an upset for Alan Arkin (“The Kominsky Method”): Pete Hammond (Deadline), Ed Martin (Media Village), Mary Murphy (Gold Derby), Lynette Rice (Entertainment Weekly), Matt Roush (TV Guide Magazine) and Sasha Stone (Awards Daily)
Four Experts predict a repeat win for Winkler: Lynn Elber (Associated Press), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Michael Schneider (Variety) and Ken Tucker (Yahoo).
That’s quite a change from a few months ago. Before nominations were announced we ranked Shalhoub fourth in our odds behind Arkin, Winkler and Tony Hale (“Veep”). So what changed? Well, “Maisel” got a big boost in the form of its 20 total nominations this year, including first-time acting bids for Marin Hinkle, Luke Kirby and Rufus Sewell (Kirby already won his category), which shows particular fondness from the actors branch of the TV academy. And Shalhoub is beloved by the Emmys in general, having previously won Best Comedy Actor three times for “Monk” (2003, 2005-2006).
Second, Oscar-winning movie star Arkin was hurt by “Kominsky” under-performing relative to expectations. It only earned nominations for Arkin and lead actor Michael Douglas when we had also expected it to be nominated for Best Comedy Series.
And Winkler might be hurt by the fact that he’s now nominated against two co-stars, unlike last year when he was the only representative from “Barry” in this category. So there’s a risk of splitting the vote, which could cancel out all three of them.
So really, Shalhoub couldn’t have asked for better conditions in this category. It could be a lot like earlier this year when he surprised by winning at the SAG Awards against two “Barry” actors and two “Kominsky” actors. If we’re right, he’ll have to make a little extra space on his increasingly crowded awards mantel.
Be sure to make your Emmy predictions today so that Hollywood insiders can see how their TV shows and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions as often as you like until just before winners are announced on September 22. And join in the fun debate over the 2019 Emmys taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our television forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.