Which guild points the way to the Best Picture winner at the Oscars?

Predicting this year’s Best Picture winner at the Oscars is made even harder than usual because none of the eight nominees has won a top prize from more than one of the four major guilds (DGA, PGA, SAG, WGA).

Roma” helmer Alfonso Cuaron won at the Directors Guild of America Awards.

Green Book” was named Best Picture of the year at the Producers Guild of America Awards.

Black Panther” claimed both Best Ensemble and Best Stunt Ensemble at the Screen Actors Guild Awards.

And the Writers Guild of America Awards went with two films that don’t number among the Best Picture contenders. “Can You Ever Forgive Me” won Best Adapted Screenplay while “Eighth Grade” prevailed in the Original Screenplay race.

SEE All 8 Best Picture Oscar nominees won at least one guild award but were snubbed by the WGA Awards

Since the Best Picture category expanded in 2010, there has been only one year when this came close to happening. In 2014 “12 Years a Slave” won Best Picture at the Academy Awards after only sharing in the win from the PGA with “Gravity.” That latter film, the last by Cuaron till “Roma,” also claimed the DGA prize while three others won at SAG (“American Hustle) and with the WGA (“Captain Phillips” and “Her”).

Below, we catalogue how each Best Picture winner at the Oscars had done with the four major guilds. The DGA predicted 6/9 winners; the PGA went 7/9 (including that tie); SAG is 4/9; and the WGA is also 4/9 (despite doubling its chances).

SEE 2019 Oscars guild awards scorecard: ‘Bohemian Rhapsody’ moves into first as voting ends

2010 Best Picture: “The Hurt Locker” (3 wins)
DGA: “The Hurt Locker”
PGA: “The Hurt Locker”
SAG: “Inglorious Basterds”
WGA: Original:”The Hurt Locker”; Adapted: “Up in the Air”

2011 Best Picture: “The King’s Speech” (3 wins)
DGA: “The King’s Speech”
PGA: “The King’s Speech”
SAG: “The King’s Speech”
WGA: Original: “Inception”; Adapted: “The Social Network”

2012 Best Picture: “The Artist” (2 wins)
DGA: “The Artist”
PGA: “The Artist”
SAG: “The Help”
WGA: Original: “Midnight in Paris”; Adapted: “The Descendants”

2013 Best Picture: “Argo” (3 wins)
DGA: “Argo”
PGA: “Argo”
SAG: “Argo”
WGA: Original:”Zero Dark Thirty”; Adapted: “Argo”

PREDICT the Oscar winners now; change them until February 24

2014 Best Picture: “12 Years a Slave” (1 win)
DGA: “Gravity”
PGA: “Gravity” and “12 Years a Slave”
SAG: “American Hustle”
WGA: Original: “Her”; Adapted: “Captain Phillips”

2015 Best Picture: “Birdman” (3 wins)
DGA: “Birdman”
PGA: “Birdman”
SAG: “Birdman”
WGA: Original: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”; Adapted: “The Imitation Game”

2016 Best Picture: “Spotlight” (2 wins)
DGA: “The Revenant”
PGA: “The Big Short”
SAG: “Spotlight”
WGA: Original: “The Big Short”; Adapted: “Spotlight”

2017 Best Picture: “Moonlight” (1 win)
DGA: “La La Land”
PGA: “La La Land”
SAG: “Hidden Figures”
WGA: Original:”Moonlight”; Adapted: “Arrival”

2018 Best Picture: “The Shape of Water” (2 wins)
DGA: “The Shape of Water”
PGA: “The Shape of Water”
SAG: “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
WGA: Original: “Get Out”; Adapted: “Call Me by Your Name”

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Be sure to check out how our experts rank this year’s Oscar contenders. Then take a look at the most up-to-date combined odds before you make your own 2019 Oscar predictions. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on February 24.

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