2020 Oscar Best Picture predictions by experts: After BAFTA sweep, ‘1917’ widens lead

“1917” won a lucky seven BAFTA Awards on Sunday, February 2. The haul at the BAFTAs for this WWI epic included the top prize of Best Picture. Multi-hyphenate Sam Mendes shared in that win as well as the one for Best British Film and claimed another on his own for directing this tribute to his grandfather.

Heading into these precursor prizes, his film was already out front to win Best Picture at the Oscars next Sunday. Mindful that the British academy often previews the Academy Awards, our Oscar experts from major media outlets have been busy updating their predictions with a slew shifting their votes to “1917.”

Sixteen of our 27 pundits are now predicting “1917” will prevail on February 9. That support translates into leading odds of 11/2 for it to take the top prize at the Academy Awards.

Six of our Oscarologists favor SAG Awards winner “Parasite” while four are expecting one-time frontrunner “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” to pull off an upset. One outlier is backing “Joker.”

See the individual rankings by experts and the resulting odds. And see how our experts rank Oscar contenders in the other 23 races according to the likelihood of winning in the key races. Use the drop-down menus at the top of each page to see the other categories.

SEE Will the Oscars be a rerun of the BAFTAs?

Here’s how the Best Picture predictions break down by expert as well as the most up-to-date odds for each of the nine nominees to win:


1. “1917: 16 experts (11/2 odds)
Thelma Adams (Gold Derby)
Jen Chaney (Vulture)
Erik Davis (Fandango)
Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior)
Tim Gray (Variety)
Susan King (Gold Derby)
Alicia Malone (TCM)
Jack Mathews (Gold Derby)
Michael Musto (NewNowNext)
Perri Nemiroff (Collider)
Nikki Novak (Fandango)
Claudia Puig (KPCC)
Christopher Rosen (Decider)
Sasha Stone (Awards Daily)
Brian Truitt (USA Today)
Susan Wloszczyna (Gold Derby)

2. “Parasite”: 6 experts (13/2 odds)
Joyce Eng (Gold Derby)
Matthew Jacobs (HuffPo)
Tariq Khan (Fox News)
Scott Mantz (Collider)
Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby)
Kevin Polowy (Yahoo)
Anne Thompson (Indiewire)

3. “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”: 4 experts (15/2 odds)
Keith Simanton (IMDB)
Jazz Tancgay (Variety)
Peter Travers (Rolling Stone)
Jeff Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere)

4. “Joker”: (17/2 odds)
Eric Deggans (NPR)

5. “The Irishman” ( 8/1 odds)

6. “Jojo Rabbit” (9/1 odds)

7. “Marriage Story” (10/1 odds)

8. “Little Women” (11/1 odds)

9. “Ford v Ferrari” (12/1 odds)

DISCUSS All the Oscar contenders with Hollywood insiders in our notorious forums

Be sure to make your Oscar predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on February 9. And join in the fierce debate over the 2020 Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our movie forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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