Breaking down the precursor awards — both nominations and winners — as well as the top Oscar nominations by categories gives us 35 key races that will determine the strongest films at the Academy Awards. Different films will have different strengths: some will do well with acting, others with writing and directing and some will pop up here and there. To be a leading Oscar contender, a film needs to be represented across a range of races.
Last year, “Green Book” checked 23 of these 35 boxes before winning Best Picture at the Oscars. Conversely, “Roma” filled in only 19 boxes while both “BlacKkKlansman” and “The Favourite” were at 20. Each of the three previous Best Picture winners numbered among the top three entries on our season-end charts.
Heading into the Golden Globes, two films had ticks in the first eight boxes: Martin Scorsese‘s “The Irishman” and Quentin Tarantino‘s “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.” While Tarantino’s love letter to Tinseltown won three awards (and three ticks), Scorsese’s crime drama left empty-handed.
“Once Upon a Time” is now out in front with 11 boxes. This is the first time this awards season that a lone film is in first. Let’s see how things line up fully:
Tarantino’s film got three out of a possible four ticks having missed the directing box, which went to Sam Mendes for “1917.” His WWI epic also won Best Drama, so gets two boxes ticked and now sits on five.
“Marriage Story” and “Joker” have made up some ground and are now at seven each after their acting wins (Laura Dern and Joaquin Phoenix respectively).
“Jojo Rabbit” was blanked by the Globes and remains on six boxes while “Rocketman” joins “Ford v Ferrari” on four boxes thanks to Taron Egerton‘s win. Check out the full table below:
Be sure to make your Oscar nomination predictions so that Hollywood studio executives can see how their films are faring in our Academy Awards odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominees are announced on January 13.