Who will be nominated for Record of the Year when the Grammy nominations are announced on November 24? Thousands of Gold Derby users have been placing their bets for months here in our prediction center. Those predictions were combined to generate our official racetrack odds. So let’s take a look at the top eight contenders likely to secure those nominations.
1. “Blinding Lights” by The Weeknd — 4/1 odds
It spent four weeks at number-one, but more impressive than that is its longevity. It spent longer in the top five of Billboard’s Hot 100 than any other song in history, and also spent more time in the top 10 than any other song. The Weeknd also earned a previous nomination in this category for “Can’t Feel My Face” (2016), so this song is as close to a lock as you can get.
2. “Don’t Start Now” by Dua Lipa — 13/2 odds
She released one of the most critically acclaimed pop albums of 2020 with “Future Nostalgia,” a likely nominee for Album of the Year. This was also the biggest hit of her career to date, peaking at number-two on the Hot 100. And the Grammys have embraced modern disco before, awarding Daft Punk for “Get Lucky” in 2014. So expect a nom for the woman who just won Best New Artist in 2019.
3. “Circles” by Post Malone — 15/2 odds
He has been nominated in this category for the last two years in a row (“Rockstar” in 2019, “Sunflower” in 2020), so expect a third with this song that broke the record for the most weeks in Billboard’s top 10 before the aforementioned “Blinding Lights” broke that record shortly thereafter.
4. “Savage (Remix)” by Megan Thee Stallion feat. Beyonce — 9/1 odds
She has had a breakthrough year on the charts and in the culture. She hit number-one for the first time with this remix featuring one of the most awarded artists in Grammy history. And though she had an even bigger hit with “WAP,” her collaboration with Cardi B, that song wasn’t submitted for this year’s awards, so “Savage” will be the recording academy’s song of choice for celebrating her sudden success.
5. “The Box” by Roddy Ricch — 11/1 odds
This song doesn’t have the social or political import of other rap hits that are often nominated in the general field (like Kendrick Lamar‘s “Alright” and Childish Gambino‘s “This is America“), but the recording academy usually can’t resist a huge hit. Consider nominations in this category for Cardi B’s “I Like It” in 2019 and Lil Nas X‘s “Old Town Road” in 2020. “The Box” spent longer at number-one (11 weeks) than any other song in 2020, so it might be irresistible to voters.
6. “Adore You” by Harry Styles — 23/2 odds
This top-10 hit didn’t reach number-one like Styles’s subsequent single “Watermelon Sugar,” but this is the song he submitted for the general field, and perhaps that was a smart call. Grammy voters usually gravitate towards love ballads like this one over more suggestive songs like “Watermelon.” But Styles has never been nominated for a Grammy before, either with One Direction or as a solo artist. So we don’t know for sure if this will be the year they finally take notice of him.
7. “Rain on Me” by Lady Gaga and Ariana Grande — 14/1 odds
Lady Gaga is a Grammy darling with 11 wins, and she has been nominated in this category twice before for “Poker Face” (2010) and her Oscar-winning “Shallow” (2019). And Grande just earned her first nom in this category in 2020 for “7 Rings,” so don’t underestimate this joint venture between the two, which debuted at number-one.
8. “I Can’t Breathe” by H.E.R. — 22/1 odds
The Grammys don’t always just nominate the biggest hits. Usually the nomination review committee that makes the final decisions saves room for one or two less ubiquitous songs, like “The Joke” by Brandi Carlile in 2019 and “Hey, Ma” by Bon Iver in 2020. H.E.R. was also nominated in this category in 2020 for a song that didn’t dominate the charts, “Hard Place,” so if she could get in for that one, voters might be even more inclined to nominate her for this timely protest song in support of the Black Lives Matter movement.
Dark Horses: “The Bones” by Maren Morris (28/1), “Cardigan” by Taylor Swift (35/1), “Say So” by Doja Cat (37/1), “Shameika” by Fiona Apple (72/1), “Dynamite” by BTS (89/1)
Be sure to make your Grammy predictions so that record executives and top name stars can see how their music is faring in our Grammy odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until nominees are announced. And join in the fierce debate over the 2021 Grammys taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our music forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.