Who will be nominated for Best New Artist at the Grammys when they announce their contenders on November 24? Thousands of Gold Derby users have been predicting who will make the cut in top categories, and their predictions have been combined to generate our official racetrack odds. Here’s who we’re betting on in this wide-open race, listed in order of their odds:
Megan Thee Stallion — 4/1 odds
She has been a cultural force in 2020, topping the Billboard Hot 100 with both “Savage” and “WAP,” making a political statement on “Saturday Night Live,” and taking home prizes at the MTV Video Music Awards, People’s Choice Awards and Artist of the Year at the BET Hip Hop Awards. If she wins here she’d be the first female rapper to take home this prize.
Phoebe Bridgers — 6/1 odds
The indie rock musician released her second studio album in 2020, “Punisher.” It was her first album to chart on the Billboard 200 and it received some of the year’s best reviews, scoring 90 on MetaCritic. She’s not the biggest hit-maker of the year, but sometimes the Grammys rally around a critical darling (consider past champs like Esperanza Spalding and Bon Iver).
Doja Cat — 7/1 odds
She gradually ascended the Billboard Hot 100 with her breakthrough hit “Say So” before her remix version with Nicki Minaj finally took her to number-one. And despite controversies along the way, she has been backed by fans, who voted her Best New Artist at the VMAs and People’s Choice Awards.
Summer Walker — 9/1 odds
She released her debut studio album “Over It” in October 2019. It has produced three platinum singles (including the top-20 hit “Playing Games”) and earned her nominations at the American Music Awards, BET Awards and VMAs as well as a win at the Billboard Music Awards. At the Grammys she could stand out to voters as the breakthrough R&B artist this category needs, kind of like H.E.R. a couple of years ago.
Pop Smoke — 14/1 odds
Roddy Ricch won a Grammy as a featured artist last year, so he’s not eligible despite this really being his breakthrough season, so the likeliest male hip-hop artist to contend here is Pop Smoke, who was killed in a home invasion months before the release of his chart-topping debut studio album “Shoot for the Stars, Aim for the Moon.” A nomination here would be an unprecedented posthumous tribute.
Gabby Barrett — 15/1 odds
The recording academy usually picks at least one artist in this category to represent country music, and we think the likeliest is Barrett, who recorded the biggest crossover hit of the year with “I Hope.” But she might have to watch out for Morgan Wallen, who comes with some baggage that could turn off voters but just won New Artist of the Year at the CMA Awards.
Rina Sawayama — 15/1 odds
The genre-bending Japanese-British singer-songwriter released her debut studio album “Sawayama” in April, but while she hasn’t topped the charts in the US, she could join Bridgers as another of the most acclaimed, iconoclastic up-and-comers in the industry.
Blackpink — 28/1 odds
K-pop has taken over the world, but it hasn’t caught on at the Grammys yet. The genre may be too big to ignore at this point, but trailblazers BTS are too established to be considered new artists, so giving Blackpink the nod could be the recording academy’s nod to an inescapable cultural movement.
Dark Horses: Morgan Wallen (30/1), Mickey Guyton (30/1), Moses Sumney (35/1), Ingrid Andress (37/1), Finneas (58/1), Orville Peck (64/1), Conan Gray (72/1)
Be sure to make your Grammy predictions so that record executives and top name stars can see how their music is faring in our Grammy odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until nominees are announced. And join in the fierce debate over the 2021 Grammys taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our music forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.