At the moment, both have 4/1 odds, but Seyfried is slightly ahead due to her overall placements. How it breaks down shows open this race is: Colman has more support from our Experts (seven to six) and Editors (four to two), while Seyfried is the choice of 15 of our top 24 users to just three for Colman.
This is the second lead change in two weeks in this category. Glenn Close was in front all season long until, um, less-than-stellar reviews dropped for “Hillbilly Elegy” on Nov. 10. The seven-time nominee soon fell to second, behind Colman, and is now in third at 5/1 odds, just barely above another veteran, Ellen Burstyn (“Pieces of a Woman”). “Minari’s” Youn Yuh-jung is in fifth. Don’t be shocked if Close mounts a comeback — “Hillbilly Elegy,” which is in select theaters and premieres on Netflix on Tuesday, has generated far more positive reactions from audiences.
Seyfried has earned some of the best reviews of her career for her beguiling turn as Marion Davies, the muse and mistress of William Randolph Hearst (Charles Dance), in “Mank,” which is currently in limited release. The actress never been nominated before, but this might be a case of the right role at the right time for recognition. Seyfried, who turns 35 on Dec. 3, is no ingenue and already has a hall-of-fame performance under her belt — Karen in “Mean Girls” (2004), her feature film debut — along with a solid resume, which includes Best Picture nominee “Les Miserables” (2012). Plus, with “Mank” expected to be a big contender — it’s in second in our Best Picture odds and will surely dominate the crafts — that could give her an edge.
It also helps that her ostensible closest rival, Colman, has already won before, taking Best Actress for “The Favourite” (2018) over Close (“The Wife”). But a previous win has never stopped Oscar voters from giving you another one in short succession if they really, really like you (see: Christoph Waltz, Mahershala Ali).
“Mank” will hit Netflix on Dec. 4.
PREDICT the 2021 Oscar nominations through March 15
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