Could Antonio Banderas pull off the Oscar upset of the year? These Experts say he’ll beat Joaquin Phoenix

Joaquin Phoenix has the Best Actor Oscar in the bag, right? His role as the title comic book supervillain in “Joker” has won him Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice, SAG and BAFTA Awards, among many other plaudits throughout the year. But a couple of the Expert journalists we’ve surveyed as of this writing say Antonio Banderas (“Pain and Glory”) will achieve what may be the year’s biggest upset. Do you agree?

Thelma Adams (Gold Derby) and Susan King (Gold Derby) are both betting on Banderas for his role as a filmmaker struggling to reconcile with his past, his relationships and his health (it’s a fictionalized take on writer-director Pedro Almodovar‘s own life and career). This is the first Oscar nomination for Banderas, so the veteran Spanish actor is due for recognition. And he earned rave reviews, sweeping Best Actor prizes from Los Angeles, New York and National Society film critics groups as well as the Cannes Film Festival and the European Film Awards.

But while Banderas was also nominated at the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards, he was snubbed by two pivotal industry groups: the Screen Actors Guild and the BAFTAs. It’s hard to win an Oscar without being nominated by those organizations. In fact, no one has ever won the Best Actor Oscar without a corresponding SAG nomination. So a Banderas victory would be an enormous coup.

The overwhelming majority of Gold Derby users are betting on Phoenix, including the other 27 out of 29 Experts, all 11 Gold Derby Editors, all of our Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s Oscars, and all of our All-Star Top 24 who got the highest scores when you combine the last couple of years’ prediction results. “Joker” was a lot more divisive than “Pain and Glory” was, but for everyone who hates the film is someone who thinks it’s a masterpiece, and with five nominees in the category that may be more than enough for Phoenix to win.

Be sure to make your Oscar winner predictions today so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions as often as you like until just before winners are announced on February 9. And join in the fun debate over the 2020 Academy Awards taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our film forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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