2020 DGA Awards predictions: ‘1917,’ ‘Honey Boy,’ ‘Chernobyl’ and more expected to win Directors Guild prizes

Sam Mendes is predicted to win the top prize at this weekend’s Directors Guild Awards for his work on the World War I drama “1917.” Scroll down for our forecasts in seven categories listed in order of our racetrack odds, with our projected winners highlighted in gold.

Our odds are based on the combined predictions of more than 1,600 registered Gold Derby users who have placed their bets here in our predictions center as of this writing. They think Mendes has the narrow advantage against Bong Joon Ho (“Parasite”). Both of their movies were big winners last weekend when “1917” claimed the Producers Guild Award for Best Picture and “Parasite” took the Screen Actors Guild Award for its ensemble cast. A win here may solidify one film or the other as the Oscar front-runner.

At the very least, the winner here will likely be the Best Director favorite at the Oscars: 15 of the last 16 DGA champs were ultimately awarded by the motion picture academy. Lately, though, the DGA Awards don’t line up as reliably with the Oscar for Best Picture: they have disagreed three times in the last four years.

Meanwhile, our current Oscar front-runner for Best Documentary Feature, “American Factory,” is favored to win here for filmmakers Steven Bognar and Julia Reichert. And Alma Har’el is the front-runner to win Best First-Time Director for “Honey Boy,” which would make her the first woman to win that prize in the five years it has been handed out.

Television winners are expected to replicate recent industry events, with “Chernobyl” and “Succession” predicted to follow their Producers Guild Awards victories, while “Barry” director Bill Hader is likely to be honored without “Fleabag” in the running. Do you agree with our consensus choices? See them below, and make or update your own predictions here before winners are announced on Saturday night, January 25.

BEST FILM DIRECTOR
Sam Mendes, “1917” — 17/5
Bong Joon Ho, “Parasite” — 18/5
Quentin Tarantino, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” — 4/1
Martin Scorsese, “The Irishman” — 9/2
Taika Waititi, “Jojo Rabbit” — 9/2

BEST FIRST-TIME DIRECTOR
Alma Har’el, “Honey Boy” — 17/5
Melina Matsoukas, “Queen and Slim” — 39/10
Joe Talbot, “The Last Black Man in San Francisco” — 4/1
Mati Diop, “Atlantics” — 9/2
Tyler Nilson and Michael Schwartz, “The Peanut Butter Falcon” — 9/2

BEST DOCUMENTARY DIRECTOR
Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert, “American Factory” — 16/5
Feras Fayyad, “The Cave” — 4/1
Ljubomir Stefanov, Tamara Kotevska, “Honeyland” — 4/1
Nanfu Wang, Jialing Zhang, “One Child Nation” — 9/2
Alex Holmes, “Maiden” — 9/2

BEST TV DRAMA DIRECTING
Mark Mylod, “This is Not for Tears” from “Succession” — 16/5
Miguel Sapochnik, “The Long Night” from “Game of Thrones” — 39/10
Stephen Williams, “The Extraordinary Being” from “Watchmen” — 9/2
Nicole Kassell, “It’s Summer and We’re Running Out of Ice” from “Watchmen” — 9/2
David Nutter, “The Last of the Starks” from “Game of Thrones” — 9/2

BEST TV COMEDY DIRECTING
Bill Hader, “Ronny/Lily” from “Barry” — 16/5
David Mandel, “Veep” from “Veep” — 39/10
Daniel Palladino, “Marvelous Radio” from “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” — 4/1
Daniel Attias, “It’s the Sixties, Man!” from “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” — 9/2
Amy Sherman-Palladino, “It’s Comedy or Cabbage” from “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” — 9/2

BEST TV MOVIE/LIMITED SERIES DIRECTING
Johan Renck, “Chernobyl” — 17/5
Ava DuVernay, “When They See Us” — 39/10
Vince Gilligan, “El Camino: A Breaking Bad Movie” — 5/1
Thomas Kail, “Nowadays” from “Fosse/Verdon” — 6/1
Minkie Spiro, “All I Care About is Love” from Fosse/Verdon — 13/2
Jessica Yu, “Glory” from “Fosse/Verdon” — 7/1

BEST TV VARIETY SERIES DIRECTING
Don Roy King, “Saturday Night Live” — 31/10
Paul Pennolino, Christopher Werner, “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” — 19/5
Jim Hoskinson, “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert” — 9/2
Paul Casey, “Real Time with Bill Maher” — 9/2
Nora Gerard, “CBS Sunday Morning” — 9/2

Be sure to make your Oscar winner predictions today so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions as often as you like until just before winners are announced on February 9. And join in the fun debate over the 2020 Academy Awards taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our film forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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