Days before the Oscars, the acting categories appear to be locks: Screen Actors Guild and Golden Globe winners Joaquin Phoenix and Renee Zellweger for the lead wins with Brad Pitt and Laura Dern in support.
Now, it’s gambling time. I’m talking upsets.
Call it the Glenn Close Effect. Last year, I swore seven-time nominee would win Best Actress. “The Wife” wasn’t all that (her powerhouse performance was its only nom) but its star was overdue. And she’d scored SAG and the Globes. And then Olivia Colman took the crown for “The Favourite.” Ouch! Oh, that canned smile on Close’s face. Sometimes it’s an honor to be nominated – others it’s a burden.
One thing in Colman’s favor? She carried “The Favourite”’s flag, securing the sole win for the movie’s hefty 1- nominations.
As my pal Paul Sheehan noted, the SAG Awards tend to predict just three of the four acting categories. They set us up for awards musical chairs. Upsets are baked in: Mark Rylance for “Bridge of Spies,” “The English Patient”’s Juliette Binoche over legendary Lauren Bacall.
So, who’s going to shake loose in 2020?
I’m doubling down on double-nominee Scarlett Johansson. That’s a lot of academy love. Johansson’s “Marriage Story” divorcee won’t unseat frontrunner Zellweger whose Judy was every bit as bravura as that of Phoenix’s Joker.
But ScarJo was also the mother of emotional centers in TIFF audience award winner “Jojo Rabbit,” a movie nominated for six Oscars including Best Picture. That’s upset ammo.
It’s going to be close, very close.
Be sure to make your Oscar winner predictions today so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions as often as you like until just before winners are announced on February 9. And join in the fun debate over the 2020 Academy Awards taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our film forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.