2020 Independent Spirit Awards predictions: Official odds in 13 categories

Who will win at the Independent Spirit Awards on February 8? Scroll down to see our predictions in 13 categories listed in order of our racetrack odds, with projected winners highlighted in gold.

More than 2,600 Gold Derby users have placed their bets here in our predictions center as of this writing. That includes Expert journalists from top media outlets, the Editors who cover awards year-round for Gold Derby, the Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s Spirit Award winners and the All-Star Top 24 Users who got the highest scores when you combine prediction results from the last two years.

The Spirit Award nominations were decided by committees made up of members of the film community including film critics, film programmers, producers, directors, writers, cinematographers, editors, actors, past nominees and winners, and members of Film Independent’s Board of Directors. But the winners are decided by all members of Film Independent who pay yearly dues of $95.

The Lighthouse” and “Uncut Gems” earned the most nominations with five apiece, though “Uncut Gems” is up for Best Feature while “The Lighthouse” is not. “Gems” is nominated in that top category against “Marriage Story,” “The Farewell,” “Clemency” and “A Hidden Life.” “Marriage” is the only film in the category that was also nominated at the Oscars, which is often an advantage in the Spirit winners round where the highest-profile awards contender tends to win.

Do you agree with our consensus choices, or are we completely off the mark? Check out our forecasts below, and make or update your own right here before prizes are handed out this weekend.

BEST FEATURE
“Marriage Story” — 82/25
“Uncut Gems” — 19/5
“The Farewell” — 4/1
“Clemency” — 9/2
“A Hidden Life” — 9/2

BEST DIRECTOR
Benny Safdie and Josh Safdie, “Uncut Gems” — 16/5
Robert Eggers, “The Lighthouse” — 4/1
Alma Har’el, “Honey Boy” — 4/1
Lorene Scafaria, “Hustlers” — 9/2
Julius Onah, “Luce” — 9/2

BEST FEMALE LEAD
Renee Zellweger, “Judy” — 17/5
Alfre Woodard, “Clemency” — 4/1
Elisabeth Moss, “Her Smell” — 5/1
Mary Kay Place, “Diane” — 11/2
Hong Chau, “Driveways” — 13/2
Karen Allen, “Colewell” — 7/1

BEST MALE LEAD
Adam Sandler, “Uncut Gems” — 16/5
Robert Pattinson, “The Lighthouse” — 19/5
Kelvin Harrison, Jr., “Luce” — 9/2
Matthia Schoenaerts, “The Mustang” — 9/2
Chris Galust, “Give Me Liberty” — 9/2

BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE
Jennifer Lopez, “Hustlers” — 17/5
Zhao Shuzhen, “The Farewell” — 18/5
Taylor Russell, “Waves” — 9/2
Octavia Spencer, “Luce” — 9/2
Lauren “Lolo” Spencer, “Give Me Liberty” — 9/2

BEST SUPPORTING MALE
Willem Dafoe, “The Lighthouse” — 82/25
Shia LaBeouf, “Honey Boy” — 19/5
Jonathan Majors, “The Last Black Man in San Francisco” — 9/2
Noah Jupe, “Honey Boy” — 9/2
Wendell Pierce, “Burning Cane” — 9/2

BEST SCREENPLAY
“Marriage Story” — 16/5
“Uncut Gems” — 19/5
“Clemency” — 9/2
“High Flying Bird” — 9/2
“To Dust” — 9/2

BEST FIRST FEATURE
“Booksmart” — 7/2
“The Last Black Man in San Francisco” — 4/1
“The Mustang” — 5/1
“See You Yesterday” — 6/1
“Diane” — 6/1
“The Climb” — 7/1

BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY
“See You Yesterday” — 10/3
“Driveways” — 19/5
“The Vast of Night” — 4/1
“Blow the Man Down” — 9/2
“Greener Grass” — 9/2

BEST DOCUMENTARY
“American Factory” — 69/20
“Apollo 11” — 37/10
“Honeyland” — 4/1
“For Sama” — 9/2
“Island of the Hungry Ghosts” — 9/2

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
“Parasite” — 82/25
“Portrait of a Lady on Fire” — 4/1
“Les Miserables” — 5/1
“The Souvenir” — 11/2
“The Invisible Life” — 13/2
“Retablo” — 7/1

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
“The Lighthouse” — 16/5
“Midsommar” — 39/10
“Hustlers” — 9/2
“Honey Boy” — 9/2
“The Third Wife” — 9/2

BEST EDITING
“Uncut Gems” — 16/5
“The Lighthouse” — 19/5
“Give Me Liberty” — 9/2
“The Third Wife” — 9/2
“Sword of Trust” — 9/2

Be sure to make your Indie Spirit predictions so that Hollywood studio executives and top name stars can see how their films are faring in our odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on February 8. And join in the fierce debate over the 2020 Spirit Awards taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our film forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

More News from GoldDerby

Loading