“Joker” received 11 Oscar nominations this year, more than any other film. But how many of those near-dozen bids will it actually win on Sunday, February 9? According to our Experts from major media outlets, the anti-superhero blockbuster is predicted to take home two trophies: Best Actor for Joaquin Phoenix and Best Score for Hildur Guonadottir. Don’t tell the Joker, but that means, conversely, his movie is poised to lose nine Oscars. The higher you climb, the harder you fall?
Phoenix is on a bonafide winning streak for the Todd Phillips-directed film, having already been feted by the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice and SAG Awards. (Next up are the BAFTAs on February 2.) The last person to pull off this one-two-three punch was Gary Oldman (“Darkest Hour”) just two years ago, and of course he soon went on to claim the BAFTA and Oscar as well. Last year’s eventual winner, Rami Malek (“Bohemian Rhapsody”), faced a momentary hiccup when Critics’ Choice voters went with Christian Bale (“Vice”) instead.
As of this writing, all 26 Experts predict Phoenix will claim Oscar glory for Best Actor: Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Erik Davis (Fandango), Eric Deggans (NPR), Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior), Joyce Eng (Gold Derby), Tim Gray (Variety), Matthew Jacobs (HuffPo), Tariq Khan (Fox TV), Susan King (Gold Derby), Alicia Malone (Turner Classic Movies), Scott Mantz (Collider), Jack Mathews (Gold Derby), Michael Musto (NewNowNext), Perri Nemiroff (Collider), Nikki Novak (Fandango), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Kevin Polowy (Yahoo), Christopher Rosen (Decider), Keith Simanton (IMDb), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Jazz Tangcay (Variety), Anne Thompson (Indiewire), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Brian Truitt (USA Today), Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere) and Susan Wloszczyna (Gold Derby).
For Best Score, 22 of our 26 prognosticators predict Guonadottir will follow up her recent victories at the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice. As for the others, Gray, King and Truitt believe Thomas Newman (“1917”) will prevail, while Jacobs goes rogue for Alexandre Desplat (“Little Women”). Of note, Guonadottir is on an awards roll as she recently claimed statuettes at the Emmys and Grammys for her “Chernobyl” score. An Oscar victory for “Joker” would give her 3/4 of an EGOT in the span of six months.
Below, see each of the nine Oscars “Joker” is predicted to lose, and which film our Experts think will win instead:
Best Picture — “1917”
Best Director — “1917”
Best Adapted Screenplay — “Little Women”
Best Cinematography — “1917”
Best Costume Design — “Little Women”
Best Film Editing — “Ford v Ferrari”
Best Makeup and Hairstyling — “Bombshell”
Best Sound Editing — “1917”
Best Sound Mixing — “1917”
Be sure to make your Oscar winner predictions today so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions as often as you like until just before the ceremony on February 9. And join in the thrilling debate over the 2020 Academy Awards taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our film forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.