Oscar Best Picture predictions by experts: ‘1917’ bumps ‘Once Upon a Time’ out of first, but watch out for ‘Parasite’

Our Oscar experts from major media outlets now give the edge in the Best Picture race to PGA winner “1917.” Ten of our 25 pundits predict Sam Mendes war epic will take the top prize on February 9. However, seven of them say to watch out for “Parasite,” which pulled off an upset at the SAG Awards in the marquee ensemble category. Only seven still support “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” which held the early lead after the 2020 Academy Awards nominations announcement on January 13

These updated predictions have resulted in new odds, with “1917” now in first at 11/2 while both “OUATH” and “Parasite” are right behind at 6/1. (See the individual rankings by experts and the resulting odds.) Scroll through our photo gallery at the top of this post to see how our expert critics rank Oscar contenders in the other 23 races according to the likelihood of winning in the key races.

SEE 2020 Oscars: Winner Predictions In All 24 Categories

Here’s how the Best Picture predictions break down by expert as well as the most up-to-date odds for each of the nine nominees to win:


1. “1917”: 10 experts (11/2 odds)
Thelma Adams (Gold Derby)
Erik Davis (Fandango)
Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior)
Michael Musto (NewNowNext)
Perri Nemiroff (Collider)
Christopher Rosen (Decider)
Sasha Stone (1917)
Anne Thompson (Indiewire)
Brian Truitt (USA Today)
Susan Wloszczyna(Gold Derby)

2. “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”: 7 experts (6/1 odds)
Susan King (Gold Derby)
Jack Mathews (Gold Derby)
Nikki Novak (Fandango)
Keith Simanton (IMDB)
Jazz Tangcay (Variety)
Peter Travers (Rolling Stone)
Jeff Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere)

2. “Parasite”: 7 experts (6/1 odds)
Joyce Eng (Gold Derby)
Tim Gray (Variety)
Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post)
Tariq Khan (Fox News)
Scott Mantz (Collider)
Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby)
Kevin Polowy (Yahoo)

4. “The Irishman”: (8/1 odds)

5. “Joker”: 1 expert (17/2 odds)
Eric Deggans (NPR)

6. “Jojo Rabbit”: (19/2 odds)

7. “Marriage Story”: (10/1 odds)

8. “Little Women”: (21/2 odds)

9. “Ford v Ferrari”: (12/1 odds)

Be sure to make your Oscar winner predictions today so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions as often as you like until just before the ceremony on February 9. And join in the thrilling debate over the 2020 Academy Awards taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our film forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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