Oscar Best Picture predictions by experts: ‘1917’ coming on strong after PGA win but watch out for ‘Parasite’

After the 2020 Academy Awards nominations announcement on January 13, our Oscar experts from major media outlets updated their Best Picture predictions and gave the edge to “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.” Quentin Tarantino‘s fable had 11 of our 19 critics predicting it to win Best Picture on February 9.

But since then, “1917” won at the PGA Awards while “Parasite” took the top prize at the SAG Awards. Those two films are now battling it out for first place with “OUATH,” which now has just nine pundits in its corner. Sam Mendes war epic has the support of seven experts while Boon Jong Ho‘s social satire is backed by five Oscar watchers.

While “OUATH” still has leading odds of 11/2 to take home the Best Picture Oscar “1917” is right behind at 6/1 while “Parasite” is at 13/2. (See the individual rankings by experts and the resulting odds.) Scroll through our photo gallery at the top of this post to see how our expert critics rank Oscar contenders in the other 23 races according to the likelihood of winning in the key races.

SEE 2020 Oscars: Winner Predictions In All 24 Categories

Here’s how the Best Picture predictions break down by expert as well as the most up-to-date odds for each of the nine nominees to win:


1. “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”: 9 experts (11/2 odds)
Joyce Eng (Gold Derby)
Susan King (Gold Derby)
Jack Mathews (Gold Derby)
Michael Musto (NewNowNext)
Nikki Novak (Fandango)
Keith Simanton (IMDB)
Jazz Tangcay (Variety)
Peter Travers (Rolling Stone)
Jeff Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere)

2. “1917”: 7 experts (6/1 odds)
Thelma Adams (Gold Derby)
Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior)
Perri Nemiroff (Collider)
Christopher Rosen (Decider)
Anne Thompson (Indiewire)
Brian Truitt (USA Today)
Susan Wloszczyna(Gold Derby)

3. “Parasite”: 5 experts (13/2 odds)
Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post)
Tariq Khan (Fox News)
Scott Mantz (Collider)
Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby)
Kevin Polowy (Yahoo)

4. “The Irishman”: (8/1 odds)

5. “Joker”: 1 expert (17/2 odds)
Eric Deggans (NPR)

6. “Jojo Rabbit”: (19/2 odds)

7. “Marriage Story”: (10/1 odds)

8. “Little Women”: (21/2 odds)

9. “Ford v Ferrari”: (12/1 odds)

Be sure to make your Oscar winner predictions today so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions as often as you like until just before the ceremony on February 9. And join in the thrilling debate over the 2020 Academy Awards taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our film forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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