“I’m very puzzled about whether I should go with ‘Parasite’ or whether I should go with ‘1917’,” agonizes senior editor Rob Licuria about his thoughts on the super competitive Best Picture race at this year’s Oscars.
He recently joined managing editor Chris Beachum in a new slugfest to continue their annual tradition of dishing their predictions for all 24 Oscar categories in 24 minutes. “Frankly, I have been swapping these out almost every day. Right now I’m going with ‘1917’ and I think I might swap to ‘Parasite,’” Licuria admits. Watch the video chat above as they explain their predictions of what they think will happen on Oscar night.
Asked by Beachum why he is thinking about switching, Licuria explains that the film’s recent performance at the precursor industry guilds indicates that Hollywood is passionate about the Korean masterpiece. “‘Parasite’ did win the SAG Award for ensemble and that is a huge achievement for a film like ‘Parasite,’ a foreign film and the first time that has ever happened. That standing ovation sticks in my mind as well that happened at the SAG Awards ceremony. Then the way it has performed in the last week with some of these guilds surprisingly,” he argues.
“It actually really has legs! This is the problem though. I put a lot of weigh with what BAFTA does. I know that BAFTA has a different way of voting for Best Picture, but it’s a similar type of academy and having ‘1917’ effectively sweep the other day has given me some pause as well, which is why I keep going back and forth and probably will do right up until the day of the Oscars.”
While Beachum acknowledges that ‘Parasite’ is a genuine contender in Best Picture, he is ultimately placing his chips on a ‘1917’ triumph on Oscar night, particularly because he is reminded that BAFTA is not the best bellwether for Oscar success. “I’ve used BAFTA in recent years and that’s been miserable. They’ve been wrong all the way back to ’12 Years a Slave,’ so I don’t know if that was a good thing or a bad thing that ‘1917’ won there. The last two years I remember switching because of BAFTA, thinking ‘oh well if ‘Roma’ can win BAFTA and also win foreign language it could also win the Oscar.’ I’m going to go with ‘1917’,” he explains.
“I’m very much about stats,” he says, adding that he “should have paid more attention to the ‘Green Book’ win last year. The PGA does their best picture exactly like the Oscars, and they’ve been right two years in a row. They got ‘Green Book’ right last year, they got ‘The Shape of Water’ right the year before, and they were tough years to predict.”
Be sure to make your Oscar winner predictions today so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions as often as you like until just before winners are announced on February 9. And join in the fun debate over the 2020 Academy Awards taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our film forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.