“There are films that do well in the guild season and then Oscar nominations come out and they under-perform, like the guilds have created a false sense of security or strength for that film and I do wonder which is the film,” Matt Noble muses in an Oscar slugfest with me and our fellow Gold Derby contributors Charlie Bright, Luca Giliberti and Rob Licuria about our final nomination predictions in 18 categories (watch the video above). Noble is particularly intrigued by the fortunes of his personal favorite “Jojo Rabbit,” which was nominated by all of the above-the-line guilds, but which he notes could be due for a reckoning. He explains, “Because the reviews for ‘Jojo Rabbit’ were somewhat mixed, it does leave itself a bit vulnerable to under-perform when you’ve got preferential voting.”
Licuria bemoans, “I just can’t bear to see the same names over and over again in every category. Every category is very different and there are some terrible films that have really great editing, so we don’t have to just nominate the same in every single category.” Licuria is “excited” that he is “picking some really left-field stuff in the below-the-line categories” and is even predicting a high-profile snub of Charlize Theron in Best Actress, pointing to relatively low awards traction for “Bombshell.” He concludes, “You’ve got to draw the line somewhere, don’t you? You have to eventually take people out if you want to include others.”
“I’ve got a category that I wouldn’t mind chatting about: Best Director — that’s such a loaded category,” Noble adds toward the end of our discussion about the main races. The five of us have either Bong Joon Ho (“Parasite”) or Sam Mendes (“1917”) winning and each of us also has Quentin Tarantino (“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”) and Martin Scorsese (“The Irishman”) in our top four, but Giliberti clarifies, “I wouldn’t be completely shocked if even our top four, who’ve gotten in everywhere, if one of them missed.” We differ as to whether Greta Gerwig (“Little Women”), Todd Phillips (“Joker”) or Taika Waititi (“Jojo Rabbit”) rounds out our predictions, but Bright says to “keep an eye out for” James Mangold (“Ford v Ferrari”).
Make your Oscar predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their shows and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions as often as you like until the nominations are announced on January 13. And join in the fun debate over the 92nd Academy Awards taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our film forums.