Will everyone be a winner on Oscar night except one man? As in “The Irishman”? Our odds forecast a golden night for eight of the nine Best Picture nominees to score at least one award, with just “The Irishman” left out in the cold.
Here’s how it looks like it’s going to shake out:
“Ford v Ferrari” (4 nominations): editing
“The Irishman” (10): nothing
“Jojo Rabbit” (6): adapted screenplay
“Little Women” (6): costume design
“Marriage Story” (6): supporting actress
Since the academy expanded the Best Picture lineup 10 years ago, only twice have all the Best Picture nominees taken home at least one statuette — and they were both after the academy switched to a sliding scale between five to 10 nominees eight years ago: at the 87th Academy Awards, held in 2015 for the films of 2014, and last year. In both years, there were eight Best Picture nominees.
If “The Irishman” indeed leaves the Dolby Theatre empty-handed, it’ll join “Beasts of the Southern Wild” (2012) as the only Best Picture nominees of their respective years to not win at least one award in the preferential era. “Beasts” was also in a field of nine, but unlike “The Irishman,” it “only” had four nominations. This would, of course, also be the second time a Martin Scorsese epic goes 0-10, following “Gangs of New York” (2002).
Despite its bona fides and lofty expectations, Scorsese’s gangster coda has underwhelmed this season. It’s gotten in everywhere it needs to — well, except for Robert De Niro — but it hasn’t been able to win anything of note. Its last big triumph was its Best Picture victory at the New York Film Critics Circle in early December. And unlike “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” which also hasn’t done as well as expected over the guilds run (but at least won three Golden Globes), “The Irishman” doesn’t have a “locked” category, like supporting actor for Brad Pitt, to depend on. Ironically, supporting actor is the only category in which “The Irishman” is even in second place in our odds, with Joe Pesci.
Still, there are some tight races that could possibly fall “The Irishman’s” way, like visual effects. Even if they don’t, if the frontrunners don’t prevail, maybe “The Irishman” won’t be the only skunked one on the sidelines.
Be sure to make your Oscar winner predictions today so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions as often as you like until just before the ceremony on February 9. And join in the thrilling debate over the 2020 Academy Awards taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our film forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.