‘Project Runway’ elimination odds (week 11): Nancy is the last designer without a challenge win, so is she doomed?

There are six designers left on “Project Runway,” and five of them have won challenges. The odd woman out is Nancy Volpe-Beringer. Now, going into episode 11, the fans who have given us their forecasts in our predictions center think she’s the contestant most likely to be eliminated. Check out this week’s complete racetrack odds here.

Volpe-Beringer made history as the oldest designer ever to compete on the show at age 64, and she’s nothing if not a survivor. When given a choice between a designer who has produced winning looks before and one who hasn’t, the judges tend to send home the one who hasn’t. But the only two times Volpe-Beringer has landed in the bottom two, the judges have kept her in the competition and eliminated the designer with past challenge victories.

Come to think of it, she’s actually been a good luck charm to those eliminated designers. In “Project Runway X Ashley Longshore,” she was in the bottom two with Marquise Foster, who had won a previous challenge. Foster was eliminated, but then he was brought back to the show the next week due to Dayoung Kim‘s withdrawal from the competition.

Then in “Suit Yourself,” she was in the bottom two with Brittany Allen who had won two previous challenges. Volpe-Beringer herself thought the judges would send her home due to Allen’s stronger track record, but the judges eliminated Allen … and then Christian Siriano brought her back using his Siriano Save. So if you want to stay in the competition, just get eliminated while standing next to Volpe-Beringer.

But will that good luck extend to herself? As of this writing she gets leading 15/8 odds of being eliminated. Ranked second is Victoria Cocieru with 12/5 odds. Cocieru has a better track record than Volpe-Beringer, but also a worse won at the same time. She has won a design challenge before and received six high scores to Volpe-Beringer’s three, but she has also gotten more low scores, spending three of the last four weeks at the bottom. If she struggles again, the judges may not want to give her a fourth second chance.

Who do you think is going home tonight? It’s a rare week when we’re not predicting Sergio Guadarrama‘s ouster, so wouldn’t it be fitting if this was the week the judges surprised us by giving him the boot?

Be sure to make your predictions so that the contestants can see how they’re faring in our racetrack odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before the next episode airs every Thursday on Bravo. You’ll compete to win a spot on our leaderboard and eternal bragging rights. See our contest rules and sound off with other fans in our reality TV forum. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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