You can now predict the nominations in five film categories for the 2021 Screen Actors Guild Awards. This year’s ceremony is set for March 14, making it the latest ever in the awards’ 27-year history and the first outside of January since 2005. SAG has extended eligibility to cover the 14 months from January 2020 through February 2021 to account for COVID-19 delays.
SAG correlates with the Oscars in the acting categories more than any other precursor award, so Oscar frontrunners like “Mank” starring Gary Oldman and “Nomadland” starring Frances McDormand should be on track for strong showings with SAG.
Conversely, SAG’s lineup for Best Film Ensemble usually includes at least one film that is snubbed at the Oscars in Best Picture and variably includes a film like “Crazy Rich Asians” that does not reap a single Oscar nomination, nor a second SAG nomination.
All four SAG winners last year for individual performances in theatrical releases went on to win the equivalent Oscar; SAG’s Best Film Ensemble winner “Parasite” went on to claim the Oscar for Best Picture. 14 of SAG’s 20 nominees last year for Best Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress went on to Oscar nominations for their performances.
Discrepancies between the nominations tend to stem from the Oscars’ later voting that favors later releases and their more exclusive membership that is less receptive to populist picks.
Following “Black Panther,” “Parasite” made it two years in a row that a film won the ensemble award without a nomination from either SAG or the Oscars for an individual performance. Both “Black Panther” and “Parasite” were Best Picture nominees that won several Oscars. This bodes well for a current contender like “News of the World,” which is favored for nominations in Best Picture, Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay, but not for its cast led by Tom Hanks.
Hanks himself however is the kind of bona fide movie star who might fail to translate his nomination from the more mainstream-leaning SAG to one with the more arthouse-leaning academy. He actually did just that for his last collaboration with director Paul Greengrass, for “Captain Phillips” seven years ago.
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