How good are the SAG Awards at predicting the four acting winners at the Oscars?

Odds are that three of the four individual film winners at the Screen Actors Guild Awards on Sunday will be collecting Oscars on February 9. Over the past 25 years, 73 of the 100 Academy Awards winners in the four acting races had first collected SAG Awards. That success rate of 73% makes these precursors a bellwether to follow when making your Oscar predictions.

The results of the four races at both the SAG and Academy Awards breakdown as follows:

Best Actor: 20 of the SAG winners went on to win Oscars (plus Benicio del Toro who won in supporting at Oscars for “Traffic”). Rami Malek (“Bohemian Rhapsody”) and Gary Oldman (“Darkest Hour”) won with the guild first. In 2017, Denzel Washington had ended a 12-year streak when he won at SAG for “Fences” but lost at the Oscars to Casey Affleck (“Manchester by the Sea”).

Best Actress: 18 of the SAG winners went on to victory at the Academy Awards. Prior to Glenn Close going down in defeat last year, the previous six SAG champs in a row had pulled this off including 2018 double winner Frances McDormand (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”).

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Best Supporting Actor: 16 of the SAG choices also added an Oscar to their mantle, including last year’s dual victor Mahershala Ali (“Green Book”).

Best Supporting Actress: 17 of the SAG choices were also those of the academy (plus Kate Winslet who won in lead at Oscars for “The Reader”). Last year, Oscar-snubbed Emily Blunt (“A Quiet Place” prevailed here ending an eight-year streak of double dippers at Allison Janney for “I, Tonya.”

Historically, the likeliest outcome is that three of Sunday’s winners at the SAG Awards will repeat at the Oscars. That has happened 11 years in the past quarter century. The 2018 perfect record of 4 for 4 has occurred just seven times. The guild has batted .500 on four occasions and been off the mark in three of the four races another three. It has never been completely wrong.

PREDICT the SAG Awards film winners; change them until January 19

Be sure to make your SAG Awards film winners predictions today so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions as often as you like until just before the ceremony on January 19. And join in the fun debate over the 2020 SAG Awards taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our film forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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