SAG Awards vs. Oscars: How often do the 4 acting winners match?

After their wins at last Sunday’s Screen Actors Guild Awards, Joaquin Phoenix (“Joker”), Renee Zellweger (“Judy”), Brad Pitt (“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”) and Laura Dern (“Marriage Story”) continue to stroll toward Oscar glory. The SAG Awards has one of the best track records with the academy: SAG has only missed five times in Best Actor, seven times in Best Actress, nine times in Best Supporting Actor and eight times in Best Supporting Actress. Not too shabby. But despite so much overlap in the categories individually, SAG and Oscar do not link up 4/4 as often as you might assume.

In its 25-year history, SAG has only had a direct match in all four Oscar acting races seven times, most recently two years ago when the foursome of Gary Oldman (“Darkest Hour”), Frances McDormand (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”), Sam Rockwell (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”), Allison Janney (“I, Tonya”) became the first set of acting winners to sweep the four major precursors (Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice, SAG and BAFTA) and the Oscars — something this year’s frontrunners are trying to mimic.

SAG usually aligns 3/4 with Oscar, which has happened 11 times. Last year was one of four times SAG has gone 2/4; Oscar crowned Olivia Colman (“The Favourite”) instead of SAG lead actress champ Glenn Close (“The Wife”), and SAG supporting actress winner Emily Blunt (“A Quiet Place”) was Oscar-snubbed, while Oscar winner Regina King (“If Beale Street Could Talk”) was SAG-snubbed. SAG has three instances of 1/4 and it has never gone 0/4.

SEE 2020 SAG Awards: Full list of winners

Some of these cases were forced splits, whether due to category confusion — like Kate Winslet campaigning and winning in supporting for “The Reader” (2008) all season long before getting nominated and winning in lead at the Oscars — or snubs, like last year’s weirdness with Blunt and King.

The stats suggest that SAG is likely to get one acting race wrong this year, but that’s probably not happening. Like the quartet two years ago, Phoenix, Zellweger, Pitt and Dern look too strong and this season is too short for anyone else to build momentum. That’s not to say the Oscars can’t deliver a Colman-esque surprise, but she and Close had split precursors, while this year’s slate looks locked for a clean sweep. It’s also important to note that six of these 4/4 matches have occurred since the Oscars moved up a month from March to February 16 years ago and five of them were in the last decade.

Here’s how SAG and Oscar have matched up in the past (years are of film release):

1994: 3/4
SAG: Tom Hanks (“Forrest Gump”), Jodie Foster (“Nell”), Martin Landau (“Ed Wood”), Dianne Wiest (“Bullets Over Broadway”)

Oscar:
 Hanks, Jessica Lange (“Blue Sky”), Landau, Wiest

1995: 2/4
SAG: Nicolas Cage (“Leaving Las Vegas”), Susan Sarandon (“Dead Man Walking”), Ed Harris (“Apollo 13”), Kate Winslet (“Sense and Sensibility”)

Oscar: Cage, Sarandon, Kevin Spacey (“The Usual Suspects”), Mira Sorvino (“Mighty Aphrodite”)

1996: 3/4
SAG: Geoffrey Rush (“Shine”), Frances McDormand (“Fargo”), Cuba Gooding Jr. (“Jerry Maguire”), Lauren Bacall (“The Mirror Has Two Faces”)

Oscar: Rush, McDormand, Gooding, Juliette Binoche (“The English Patient”)

1997: 4/4*
SAG and Oscar: Jack Nicholson (“As Good as It Gets”), Helen Hunt (“As Good as It Gets”), Robin Williams (“Good Will Hunting”), Kim Basinger (“L.A. Confidential”)

*
Basinger won the SAG in a tie with Gloria Stuart (“Titanic”).

1998: 2/4
SAG: Roberto Benigni (“Life Is Beautiful”), Gwyneth Paltrow (“Shakespeare in Love”), Robert Duvall (“A Civil Action”), Kathy Bates (“Primary Colors”)

Oscar: Benigni, Paltrow, James Coburn (“Affliction”), Judi Dench (“Shakespeare in Love”)

SEE Renee Zellweger has set a brand new record at the SAG Awards with her win for ‘Judy’

1999: 3/4
SAG: Kevin Spacey (“American Beauty”), Annette Bening (“American Beauty”), Michael Caine (“The Cider House Rules”), Angelina Jolie (“Girl, Interrupted”)

Oscar: Spacey, Hilary Swank (“Boys Don’t Cry”), Caine, Jolie

2000: 1/4*
SAG: Benicio Del Toro (“Traffic”), Julia Roberts (“Erin Brockovich”), Albert Finney (“Erin Brockovich”), Judi Dench (“Chocolat”)

Oscar: Russell Crowe (“Gladiator”), Roberts, Del Toro, Marcia Gay Harden (“Pollock”)

*Del Toro won the SAG in lead and the Oscar in supporting, while Harden was not nominated at SAG.

2001: 1/4*
SAG: Russell Crowe (“A Beautiful Mind”), Halle Berry (“Monster’s Ball”), Ian McKellen (“The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring”), Helen Mirren (“Gosford Park”)

Oscar: Denzel Washington (“Training Day”), Berry, Jim Broadbent (“Iris”), Jennifer Connelly (“A Beautiful Mind”)

*Connelly was nominated in lead at SAG and won the Oscar in supporting.

2002: 1/4
SAG: Daniel Day-Lewis (“Gangs of New York”), Renee Zellweger (“Chicago”), Christopher Walken (“Catch Me If You Can”), Catherine Zeta-Jones (“Chicago”)

Oscar: Adrien Brody (“The Pianist”), Nicole Kidman (“The Hours”), Chris Cooper (“Adaptation”), Zeta-Jones

2003: 3/4
SAG: Johnny Depp (“Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl”), Charlize Theron (“Monster”), Tim Robbins (“Mystic River”), Renee Zellweger (“Cold Mountain”)

Oscar: Sean Penn (“Mystic River”), Theron, Robbins, Zellweger

SEE 4 reasons why Laura Dern has the Oscar in the bag for ‘Marriage Story’

2004: 4/4
SAG and Oscar: Jamie Foxx (“Ray”), Hilary Swank (“Million Dollar Baby”), Morgan Freeman (“Million Dollar Baby”), Cate Blanchett (“The Aviator”)

2005: 3/4
SAG: Philip Seymour Hoffman (“Capote”), Reese Witherspoon (“Walk the Line”), Paul Giamatti (“Cinderella Man”), Rachel Weisz (“The Constant Gardener”)

Oscar: Hoffman, Witherspoon, George Clooney (“Syriana”), Weisz

2006: 3/4
SAG: Forest Whitaker (“The Last King of Scotland”), Helen Mirren (“The Queen”), Eddie Murphy (“Dreamgirls”), Jennifer Hudson (“Dreamgirls”)

Oscar: Whitaker, Mirren, Alan Arkin (“Little Miss Sunshine”), Hudson

2007: 2/4
SAG: Daniel Day-Lewis (“There Will Be Blood”), Julie Christie (“Away From Her”), Javier Bardem (“No Country for Old Men”), Ruby Dee (“American Gangster”)

Oscar: Day-Lewis, Marion Cotillard (“La Vie en Rose”), Bardem, Tilda Swinton (“Michael Clayton”)

2008: 3/4*
SAG: Sean Penn (“Milk”), Meryl Streep (“Doubt”), Heath Ledger (“The Dark Knight”), Kate Winslet (“The Reader”)

Oscar: Penn, Winslet, Ledger, Penelope Cruz (“Vicky Cristina Barcelona”)

*Winslet won the SAG in supporting and the Oscar in lead.

SEE The Oscars love the ’90s: The supporting actor field is a bunch of acting champs (and a nominee) from the past

2009: 4/4
SAG and Oscar: Jeff Bridges (“Crazy Heart”), Sandra Bullock (“The Blind Side”), Christoph Waltz (“Inglourious Basterds”), Mo’Nique (“Precious”)

2010: 4/4
SAG and Oscar: Colin Firth (“The King’s Speech”), Natalie Portman (“Black Swan”), Christian Bale (“The Fighter”), Melissa Leo (“The Fighter”)

2011: 3/4
SAG: Jean Dujardin (“The Artist”), Viola Davis (“The Help”), Christopher Plummer (“Beginners”), Octavia Spencer (“The Help”)

Oscar: Dujardin, Streep (“The Iron Lady”), Plummer, Spencer

2012: 3/4*
SAG: Daniel Day-Lewis (“Lincoln”), Jennifer Lawrence (“Silver Linings Playbook”), Tommy Lee Jones (“Lincoln”), Anne Hathaway (“Les Miserables”)

Oscar: Day-Lewis, Lawrence, Christoph Waltz (“Django Unchained”), Hathaway

*Waltz was not nominated at SAG.

2013: 4/4
SAG and Oscar: Matthew McConaughey (“Dallas Buyers Club”), Cate Blanchett (“Blue Jasmine”), Jared Leto (“Dallas Buyers Club”), Lupita Nyong’o (“12 Years a Slave”)

SEE Joaquin Phoenix: 13 films ranked from worst to best

2014: 4/4
SAG and Oscar: Eddie Redmayne (“The Theory of Everything”), Julianne Moore (“Still Alice”), J.K. Simmons (“Whiplash”), Patricia Arquette (“Boyhood”)

2015: 3/4*
SAG: Leonardo DiCaprio (“The Revenant”), Brie Larson (“Room”), Idris Elba (“Beasts of No Nation”), Alicia Vikander (“The Danish Girl”)

Oscar: DiCaprio, Larson, Mark Rylance (“Bridge of Spies”), Vikander

*Elba was not nominated at the Oscars.

2016: 3/4
SAG: Denzel Washington (“Fences”), Emma Stone (“La La Land”), Mahershala Ali (“Moonlight”), Viola Davis (“Fences”)

Oscar: Casey Affleck (“Manchester by the Sea”), Stone, Ali, Davis

2017: 4/4
SAG and Oscar: Gary Oldman (“Darkest Hour”), Frances McDormand (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”), Sam Rockwell (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”), Allison Janney (“I, Tonya”)

2018: 2/4*
SAG: Rami Malek (“Bohemian Rhapsody”), Glenn Close (“The Wife”), Mahershala Ali (“Green Book”), Emily Blunt (“A Quiet Place”)

Oscar: Malek, Olivia Colman (“The Favourite”), Ali, Regina King (“If Beale Street Could Talk”)

*Blunt was not nominated at the Oscars and King was not nominated at SAG.

PREDICT the Oscar winners now; change through February 9

Be sure to make your Oscar winner predictions today so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions as often as you like until just before the ceremony on February 9. And join in the thrilling debate over the 2020 Academy Awards taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our film forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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